Early indications point towards an early onset of the upcoming hurricane season.
Hurricane season is about to kick off, but Mother Nature might not wait for the official June 1st start date this year. Some forecasting models are hinting at a head start to the 2025 season, especially in the western Caribbean where conditions are ripe for storm development.
In the last decade, we've seen at least one named storm form before June 1 in seven out of ten years. In comparison, there were only three years with early named storms from 2005 to 2014. To accommodate these early storms, the National Hurricane Center started issuing tropical weather outlooks two weeks earlier than before, from May 15.
2020 nearly had three early named storms, with Tropical Storm Cristobal forming on June 1, and 2012, 2016, and 2020 saw two ahead-of-schedule storms each. Nevertheless, an early start doesn't necessarily mean more storms will follow. But, this year could be busy, with researchers at Colorado State University predicting 17 named storms, making it an above-average season.
The early activity can be largely attributed to unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf basins during spring, a trend meteorologists and climate scientists have been watching for years. As our world continues to warm, so do the oceans, which absorb 90% of the world's surplus heat. This additional warmth can fuel hurricanes, providing heat and moisture that rises into the storm, strengthening it. The warmer the water, the more energy there is for the hurricane to grow, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, acting as additional fuel for tropical systems.
Currently, sea surface temperatures are incredibly warm for this time of year, especially in the Gulf and southern Caribbean, potentially setting the stage for early named storms if favorable atmospheric conditions align. In fact, water temperatures in the Caribbean are among the warmest on record for early May, aligning with temperatures typically found in late June and July.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has also had some preseason activity in recent years, though not as frequently as the Atlantic. The Eastern Pacific season begins two weeks earlier than the Atlantic, on May 15. In the last 20 years, the Eastern Pacific basin has only had three named tropical systems prior to the official start date – Andreas in 2021, Adrian in 2017, and Aletta in 2012.
The relationship between the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins can impact storm formation, with a more active Atlantic basin often resulting in a less active Pacific due to factors like El Niño and La Niña. It's essential to keep an eye on these fluctuations and how they could potentially affect hurricane activity in both basins.
Be prepared for the 2025 hurricane season, as the combination of warm water temperatures, favorable atmospheric conditions, and the potential for higher than average named storms could lead to an active season. It's never too early to ensure your community is prepared for the potential impacts of hurricanes.
- The 2025 hurricane season might see an early start, similar to the trend observed over the last decade, as the conditions in the western Caribbean seem favorable for storm development.
- Given the unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf basins during spring, science suggests that these warmer temperatures could provide energy for hurricane growth and serve as additional fuel for tropical systems.
- The outlooks for climate-change and environmental-science indicate that as our world continues to warm, hurricane activity could become more active, given the crucial role of warm water temperatures in fueling hurricanes.
- In view of the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Gulf and southern Caribbean, it's important to monitor these conditions closely, as they could potentially lead to the forming of early named storms if favorable atmospheric conditions align.
