DWD's weather forecast for July unexpectedly submerged or immersed in water
In July 2022, Germany experienced a significant shift in its weather patterns, with increased rainfall and reduced sunshine compared to previous years. These changes have had a notable impact on the country's economy, particularly on the hospitality sector.
According to meteorologist Walter, no high-pressure system is in sight, and there's no indication of an improvement in the weather pattern at the moment. This rainy weather has affected outdoor dining, day trips, and last-minute hotel bookings, as reported by Ingrid Hartges, CEO of the Hotel and Restaurant Association Dehoga.
On July 2nd, the highest temperature of the year so far, 39.3 degrees, was measured in Andernach, Rhineland-Palatinate. However, this was followed by a sharp drop in temperature, with particularly cold temperatures on July 10th in Meßstetten (Baden-Württemberg) at 3.5 degrees. The average temperature in July was 18.4 degrees, 1.5 degrees higher than the July average of the reference period 1961 to 1990.
Despite the cooler temperatures, July 2022 saw an average of 114 liters per square meter of precipitation, making it the first month since January with more precipitation than the respective comparison period. This excess precipitation was 47 percent compared to the reference period 1961 to 1990. Even compared to the more recent and wetter reference period 1991 to 2020, the precipitation target was exceeded by more than 30 percent.
In the northeast and parts of Bavaria, as well as later in the third decade, there was a lot of rain and heavy rain. The highest daily precipitation was 99 liters per square meter in the Bavarian town of Aschau-Stein on July 28th.
Warm, moisture-rich air cooling down often leads to heavy rain and heavy rainfall, according to Fred Hattermann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Longer-lasting weather patterns can lead to drought phases or prolonged precipitation, as explained by Hattermann.
While climate change is causing increasing summer temperatures and greater variability in weather patterns in Germany, the claim that the increased rainfall and reduced sunshine in July 2022 were directly due to climate change cannot be confirmed from these results. July 2022 was actually part of a dry year overall, and sunshine reductions have been observed more recently, but direct causation to climate change for this specific month is not established here.
However, the general trends in Germany’s climate do show increasing temperatures and variability in precipitation, which are consistent with broader patterns attributed to climate change. Climate change increases the likelihood of extreme weather events, including intense rainfall and storms, but attributing a specific month's rainfall and sunshine changes directly to climate change typically requires detailed attribution studies which are not presented in these search results.
As we move forward, the situation could still change in the next two weeks, according to meteorologist Walter. Sunny weather in August could "at least somewhat ease the situation," according to Hartges, providing some relief to the struggling hospitality sector.
[1] [Source for sunshine reduction and temperature increase trends] [2] [Source for precipitation fluctuations and lack of direct causation to climate change for July 2022]
Weather forecasting indicates no immediate improvement in the persistent rainy weather, which has significantly impacted outdoor dining and tourism, as predicted by meteorologist Walter and reported by Ingrid Hartges, CEO of Dehoga. Despite the general trend of increased temperatures and precipitation variability in Germany's climate that aligns with broader climate change patterns, the exact cause of the increased rainfall and reduced sunshine in July 2022 remains undetermined, as suggested in sources [1] and [2].
