Dubai Climate Summit Extension: Rising Anger and Divisions Over Fossil Fuels
The ambitious timeline set by COP28 chair for securing agreements has fallen short. On the last official day, President Sultan Al Jaber of COP28 called for the negotiations to wrap up by 11 am local time (2 am ET), but discussions continued.
Diplomats were still engaged in bilateral meetings and small-group conversations, attempting to bridge the numerous differences that surfaced in the Monday-published "Core Draft Agreement" draft. This revised draft shelved the fossil fuel exit demand, which had earlier been included.
Instead, the revised proposal encourages countries to reduce pollution contributing to planetary warming, offering a variety of measures such as oil, coal, and gas consumption and production reduction. This softer approach has caused outcry among climate advocates and ambitious nations.
Former US Vice President Al Gore expressed anger on Monday, warning that the summit is "at the brink of total failure." He wrote, "The world must urgently shift away from fossil fuels, but this vague draft appears as if it's been dictated verbally by OPEC." Gore added, "The situation is worse than many feared."
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghaith urged members and allies to dismiss any rhetoric targeting fossil fuels and focus on emissions instead, last week. Since Al Jaber, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO of the United Arab Emirates, was appointed COP28 chair, questions have arisen about the oil industry's influence on the summit. An analysis reveals that fossil fuel industry had unprecedented access to the conference.
Negotiations normally conclude late, but this year's talks have raised brow-raising concerns. Some nations have declared they will not sign the draft in its current form. A new draft could appear later on Tuesday.
Australian Climate Minister Chris Bowen was cited in Australian media reports, stating that "the so-called coalition of powerful countries - such as Australia, the US, UK, Canada, and Norway - will not sign the draft as it stands." The UK declined to comment, although a government spokesperson confirmed on Monday that the nation's stance is clear: "rapid reduction of unrestrained fossil fuels is essential to achieve our climate goals."
Catherine Abreu, founder and CEO of the non-profit Destination Zero, pointed out that countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq failed to mention phasing out fossil fuel use in the text. The Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reported that Kuwait's delegation confirmed their opposition to the exit "on Tuesday."
The EU delegation met with Ambition Coalition allies on Tuesday, planning their next steps, while Wopke Hoekstra and Teresa Ribera held talks with UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the 27 member states. "We must uphold the 1.5-degree goal. Science demands it, and our children deserve it," Hoekstra said, sharing a photo from his meeting with the Ambition Coalition.
Experts and climate observers have criticized the revised draft for its vague formulations and lack of a concrete timeline. "This draft has a massive 'could'-limitation clause, making all listed measures optional for nations," Rachel Cleetus, political director and leading economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said.
"It has a lengthy list of measures with glaring gaps, including a lack of compelling timeframes."
Further Reading
Background Insights:
- Fossil Fuel Lobbying at COP28: Governments and groups lobbying for fossil fuels reportedly had tremendous influence on the negotiations. Several leaders promoting fossil fuel usage, like Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, argued that oil should be treated as a "gift from God." The fossil fuel industry's intervention and influence have exacerbated tensions around the phasing out of fossil fuels.
- Economic and Financial Concerns: Many nations are concerned about the potential financial and economic impacts of phasing out fossil fuels. Some countries pushing for increased renewable energy have faced criticism for focusing on produced biofuels instead of reducing emissions. Additionally, leaders questioning the technical viability of a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy raised concerns about energy accessibility and affordability.
- Paris Agreement and US Involvement: The Paris Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to below 1.5°C or "well below 2°C" above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, has faced challenges. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under former President Donald Trump has dealt a blow to international efforts against climate change.
- International Ambition Coalition: A coalition of nations, including Australia, the US, the UK, Canada, and Norway, pools their collective influence to advocate for strong climate policies. This coalition has urged the COP28 to commit to the 1.5°C warming limit and end the fossil fuel era.
- CORE Group’s Role: The "High Ambition Coalition" (CORE) includes 80 countries aiming to secure commitments to end fossil fuel subsidies and accelerate the transition to low-carbon emissions. However, the final draft's failure to achieve these objectives has stirred disappointment and frustration within the CORE Group.
- Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Resistance: A significant number of countries have opposed phasing out fossil fuels in the final agreement. Notable resistors, such as Saudi Arabia, a major OPEC oil producer, argue that the focus should instead be on reducing emissions rather than singling out energy sources.
- Natural Resources and Rights Tribunal: To hold countries and corporations accountable to environmental and human rights, activists have initiated a Natural Resources and Rights Tribunal. This tribunal aims to challenge powerful actors responsible for climate change and the degradation of natural resources, advocating for a just and clean transition by keeping oil in the ground.
Sources: 1. Reuters - 2. Reuters - 3. - 4. - [UCS coalition slams watered-down fossil fuel phase-out pledge at COP28]
