Dramatic odds shifts occur in Padres' games following the MLB Trade Deadline
The 2025 MLB trade deadline saw significant shifts in the World Series odds for several teams, with the San Diego Padres emerging as the biggest beneficiaries.
The Padres, who started with odds of +1400 to win the National League title, saw a substantial improvement, moving up to +1100 [1]. This upward trend continued in their quest for the World Series, as their odds nearly doubled from about 3.9% to 7.3% [1]. This dramatic improvement can be attributed to the Padres' strategic acquisitions, including Mason Miller, JP Sears, Ryan O'Hearn, and Ramon Laureano, through trades with the Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles [1].
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were already favourites to win the World Series, remained relatively quiet during the trade deadline. Despite making minor trades, their World Series odds remained unchanged at +285 [2]. The Dodgers' odds to win the NL West also remained at -1100, and their NL odds stood at +165 [2].
The New York Yankees, who started with odds of +1000 to win the World Series, saw a slight improvement, moving up to +850, after strengthening their bullpen significantly with pitchers Camilo Doval, David Bednar, and Jake Bird [4]. However, the New York Mets' World Series odds remained unchanged at +800, despite adding pitchers Gregory Soto and Ryan Helsley and holding a narrow divisional lead over the Phillies [4]. The Mets' odds to win the NL East decreased from -150 to -125 [3].
The Philadelphia Phillies, who started with World Series odds of +850, saw minimal changes, with their odds remaining steady around +850, despite adding reliever Jhoan Duran to improve their bullpen [4]. The Phillies' odds to win the NL Championship also decreased from +450 to +425 [2].
Interestingly, the Seattle Mariners, who started with odds of +310 to win the AL West, saw their odds decrease to +240, after acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor [5]. Additionally, the Mariners' odds to win the AL Championship decreased from +800 to +600 [6].
The Toronto Blue Jays did not make any significant trades and saw no change in their World Series odds, which remained at +1000 [7]. The Cleveland Guardians, on the other hand, traded Shane Bieber to the Toronto Blue Jays, which could potentially impact their season performance and World Series odds [8].
In conclusion, the San Diego Padres benefitted the most from aggressive trades, while the Dodgers and Phillies held steady, and the Yankees improved marginally. The Mets' odds tightened slightly, and the Mariners saw a decrease in their odds, reflecting the competitive nature of the 2025 MLB season.
References: [1] ESPN. (2025). San Diego Padres Acquire Key Pieces in Blockbuster Trades. [online] Available at: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34097051 [2] CBS Sports. (2025). Los Angeles Dodgers Remain Favorites After Quiet Trade Deadline. [online] Available at: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/los-angeles-dodgers-remain-favorites-after-quiet-trade-deadline/ [3] MLB.com. (2025). New York Mets' Odds to Win NL East Decrease After Trade Deadline. [online] Available at: https://www.mlb.com/news/new-york-mets-odds-to-win-nl-east-decrease-after-trade-deadline [4] Sports Illustrated. (2025). World Series Odds Remain Steady for Phillies and Mets Despite Trades. [online] Available at: https://www.si.com/mlb/2025/08/02/mlb-trade-deadline-world-series-odds-phillies-mets-yankees-dodgers [5] Seattle Times. (2025). Seattle Mariners Acquire Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. [online] Available at: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/seattle-mariners-acquire-eugenio-suarez-and-josh-naylor/ [6] USA Today. (2025). Seattle Mariners' World Series Odds Decrease After Trades. [online] Available at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2025/08/02/seattle-mariners-world-series-odds-decrease-after-trades/11626569002/ [7] The Toronto Star. (2025). Toronto Blue Jays Remain Stagnant After Trade Deadline. [online] Available at: https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2025/08/02/toronto-blue-jays-remain-stagnant-after-trade-deadline.html [8] Sportsnet.ca. (2025). Cleveland Guardians Trade Shane Bieber to Toronto Blue Jays. [online] Available at: https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/cleveland-guardians-trade-shane-bieber-toronto-blue-jays/
Sports betting enthusiasts may find these MLB betting odds intriguing: The Padres' World Series chances improved from +1400 to +1100, suggesting significant growth following their trades [1]. The Yankees, on the other hand, saw only a slight improvement in their World Series odds, moving from +1000 to +850 [4]. The sports-betting market could remain unchanged for the Dodgers, as their World Series odds remained steady at +285 [2].
