The game of politics
Donald Trump's Possible Third Term: William Hill Offers Odds at +500 for US Constitutional Upheaval
Presidents in the United States can't reclaim the top job after serving two terms, but Donald Trump, current commander-in-chief, has expressed his desire to alter the rules and become the first to defy this limit. Such a change would necessitate a drastic revamping of the Constitution.
The Vice President, JD Vance, is the frontrunner for the 2028 presidency, according to predictions. Interestingly, leading UK sportsbook operator William Hill believes it's plausible for Trump to make a comeback, offering odds of +500 for a third stint. Vance holds the favorable position of +250, followed by Donald Trump Jr. and Gavin Newsom at +900.
Despite being born in South Africa and unable to contest the presidency, Elon Musk is still considered a prospect by William Hill, with odds of +3300 for the next election.
A possible loophole?
To modify the 22nd Amendment, a change to the two-term cap would require a two-thirds majority in Congress and the agreement of at least 38 state governments. While the Republican Party enjoys a majority in both chambers, they lack the necessary support. At the state level, Democrats control 18 of the 50 states, creating another considerable hurdle.
Trump supporters suggest a way around this obstacle: JD Vance could run for president with Trump as his vice president, win the election, and then resign. This would allow Trump to step into the role for a third time.
A popular trend
Political betting has gained traction in the UK in recent years, with some politicians even finding themselves in hot water for participating. As the UK heads towards an election in July 2024, political figures are once again drawing attention for their betting habits.
Sportsbooks and prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are now commonplaces for political wagers, having gained immense popularity during the most recent US election.
Fun facts to brighten your day
- The 22nd Amendment was ratified in 1951, establishing a two-term limit for presidential service.
- Franklin D. Roosevelt is the only president to have served four terms (1933–1945). The 22nd Amendment was enacted in response to his prolonged leadership.
- The 22nd Amendment included a "grandfather clause" that exempted then-incumbent Harry Truman, who declined to seek re-election in 1952.
- Some analysts argue that a technicality in the 22nd Amendment could allow a non-consecutive third term, but this interpretation lacks judicial precedent and faces significant political hurdles, including public resistance and potential congressional action.
- Trump can run for president in 2024 because his first term (2017–2021) was before his 2024 candidacy. If he wins in 2024, the 22nd Amendment would prevent him from running again in 2028. However, if he loses in 2024, he may theoretically run in 2028 (no constitutional barrier to non-consecutive candidacies), although no president has ever served non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland (1885–1889; 1893–1897).
- The 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, established a two-term limit for the presidency, hindering Donald Trump's bid for a third term in 2028.
- Despite being a South African native and unable to contest the presidency, Elon Musk is still considered a longshot candidate for the 2028 presidency, with odds of +3300 from William Hill.
- political betting, also known as political wagers, has become increasingly popular in the UK and the US, with sportsbooks and prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi offering odds for the 2028 presidency.
- A controversial loophole for bypassing the two-term limit suggested by Trump supporters involves JD Vance running for president in 2028, winning the election, and then resigning to allow Trump to serve a third term as vice president.
