Dominated Politics: The Influence of a Single American Demographic and the Quiet Mass
In the political landscape of the United States, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a significant contest. The modern-day silent majority, a group that has proven influential in recent elections, is expected to play a decisive role once again. This time, the focus is on suburban voters.
In 2016, the "silent majority" made up exactly half of the overall voting population, playing a crucial role in electing Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. This group, often forgotten and soft-spoken voices in Middle America, ensured Trump's victory. Fast forward to 2020, and Joe Biden fared far better in suburban areas than Clinton did, garnering 51.2% of voters.
The current unemployment rate stands at around 4%, a testament to the economic recovery under Biden's administration. His infrastructure and jobs policies have benefitted the middle class, particularly moderates in suburbs. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, one of his key policies, has already invested over $100 billion into fixing American bridges and roads.
Biden's pro-Israel stance should resonate with suburban moderates, a demographic that traditionally leans right. Independents, a large contingent of this electoral group, often determine change in government. In fact, they overwhelmingly support Israel, with 54% preferring Israel over Palestine.
Among suburban voters leaning right, only 13% believe immigrants detract from their communities, suggesting a more welcoming atmosphere towards diversity. This shift is a stark contrast to the recent actions of Governors Abbott and DeSantis, who have bused migrants from their border states to 'liberal havens.'
The 2024 election is likely to be a battle between Biden and a potential Republican candidate. Should the election be as close as the 2016 contest, suburban voters could once again hold the key to the White House.
However, it's not just suburban voters who could shape the election's outcome. The group likely to be decisive in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as in the last five decades, is the Hispanic voters. They have shown a significant impact on recent election outcomes, although recent polls indicate a majority of them currently reject Donald Trump.
In 1968, Richard Nixon amassed 301 electoral votes, helping conservatives gain five seats in both the Senate and House. Nixon won every state but two in the 1972 election, meaning they were here to stay. The 'red wave' of 1968 left Americans with the message that the silent majority was asserting itself. Similarly, the 2018 elections saw a 'blue wave' as Democrats controlled the independent vote by 12 points, leading to a significant shift in Congress.
As the 2024 election approaches, the focus will be on the candidates' policies, their appeal to key demographics, and the impact of these groups on the final outcome. The silent majority, suburban voters, and Hispanic voters could all play pivotal roles in deciding the next President of the United States.
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