A Troubling Pattern of Attacks in the Red Sea
On Sunday, an unfortunate series of events transpired in the Red Sea, as Yemeni Houthi rebels targeted several vessels, including merchant ships and the USS Carney, an American warship. Regrettably, the civilian ships were hit with missiles, while the USS Carney came under attack with drones.
Resistance met the enemy flying objects for hours aboard the USS Carney, as the Houthis, a militia financially and controlled by Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack. Consistently, the USS Carney has witnessed numerous assaults since its October 2023 deployment to the Red Sea following the Hamas attack on Israel.
The American warship was recently called upon to neutralize an Iranian threat that was endangering a carrier group in the US fleet. Other US naval assets have also fallen victim to assaults - mainly by Iran. Post-attack, the US has threatened "all appropriate responses," setting their sight on Iran as the primary suspect.
"These attacks represent a direct risk to global trade and security at sea," the US military stated. "We have solid grounds to believe that these strikes, while launched by the Houthi in Yemen, are bolstered by Iran," the US asserted.
What is Iran's intent?
Security analyst Peter Neumann, 48, of King's College London, contends that the assaults pose a "form of asymmetrical warfare" intended to amplify pressure on Israel and the US. As "retribution for supporting Israel, one of the crucial trade routes to the West is being impeded," explains Neumann. This is an endeavor to inflict significant economic harm on Europe and Israel.
However, other possibilities exist. It may be that Iran seeks to provoke a reaction from the United States or test US red lines. Or, perhaps, the Houthi rebels are operating independently - without instruction from Tehran. If this is true, one would expect Iran to weigh in on behalf of the rebellion shortly.
Security expert Michael Horowitz from the Le Beck International think tank advises against underestimating the magnitude of the attacks. "The sheer number of attacks, which include those aimed at US ships, raises a serious question: Is the current level of retaliation sufficient?" the expert reminded X, a previous iteration of Twitter.
"I understand why the US wishes to avoid another conflict. But this is one of many instances where inaction leads to more hazardous and expensive consequences than the alternative," the expert explained.
Horowitz emphasizes that the US's Arab allies are carefully observing Washington's response. "If Washington fails to guarantee free navigation, they will seek aid from those capable of doing so, even if that means turning to Iran's arch-enemy," the expert opined.
The US could respond through military action in the Red Sea without directly instigating a war against Iran. Potential options: a military attack against the Yemeni Houthi, aimed at discouraging further attacks on commercial vessels.
"A strong US response is crucial. If this does not materialize, 'Washington will again leave a vacuum, which will inevitably be exploited by its opponents - particularly Iran, but not only,' says Horowitz," the expert asserted.
Further Reading
Repeated incidents involving the USS Carney in the Red Sea and the subsequent Houthi strikes have raised concerns regarding Iran's alleged involvement in these events. The US has pointed fingers at Iran for supporting the Houthis, who claimed responsibility for the incident involving the USS Carney. This latest attack on the US destroyer has prompted the US to consider "all appropriate responses," further driving up tensions between the two nations.
Despite Iran's denials, it maintains close ties with groups like Hamas and has a history of involvement in regional conflicts. The repeated attacks on US military ships could serve to intensify pressure on the United States and its allies, such as Israel, or to test US boundaries in the area.
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Enrichment Insights
- Houthis' Motivations: The Houthi movement, backed by Iran, has been launching attacks on Israeli-linked ships and commercial vessels in the Red Sea since October 2023. Following the Gaza war which resulted in Hamas attacks on Israel, the Houthis took advantage of the tensions to disrupt global trade and navigation in the Red Sea, causing substantial economic losses[2][4][5].
- Iran's Role: Tehran is accused of providing military and political backing to the Houthis, including intelligence, weaponry, and financing. This support enables the Houthis to carry out their attacks[2][4].
- Escalation: Attacks in the Red Sea have resulted in retaliatory measures from the USA and its allies, including air strikes and sanctions against Iran-backed entities. Moreover, the USA has initiated covert cyber-operations against Iranian ships believed to support the Houthis[2][4].
- Political Context: The Red Sea crisis is intertwined with broader conflicts across the region, including the Gaza war and the Iran-Israel proxy conflict. The Houthis have vowed to continue targeting ships linked to Israel until the Gaza war ends[5].
In summary, Iran's alleged involvement in attacks on US and allied warships in the Red Sea is driven by its support for the Houthi rebels. The objective is to disrupt global trade and navigation, as well as to test US red lines and put pressure on the USA and its allies, particularly Israel.
