Current Tensions Between India and Pakistan Escalate
Disregarding the India-Pakistan escalation carries significant danger, cautions conflict analyst
In a dramatic turn of events, the long-standing battle between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan heats up, raising international concerns.
After conducting multiple airstrikes on supposed terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan early Wednesday, India claimed these moves were a response to the brutal attack on 26 tourists in India-administered Kashmir that took innocent lives.
The Pakistani government, in turn, has denounced these actions as an "act of war," causing the death of more than 30 people. Since their independence in 1947, when British rule ended, the two countries have engaged in numerous military conflicts 1.
U.S. President Trump recently spoke out about the conflict, calling the strikes a "shame" and hoping for a swift end to the violence 2. However, he uttered some questionable remarks about centuries of warfare between the two nations, despite Pakistan's relatively recent foundation in 1947 3.
Praveen Donthi, a prominent analyst for the International Crisis Group, stated that U.S. intervention is essential in the conflict but warned that rhetoric like Trump's minimizing the gravity of the war carries a high risk as both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers 4.
Donthi delved into how this recent escalation compares to previous incidents and discussed potential consequences in a conversation with NPR's Steve Inskeep 5.
Interview Highlights
Steve Inskeep: Global news media reports that India struck first earlier this week 6. But it seemed as if talks between national security advisers were attempting to settle the matter. Yet, more attacks occurred today. What's your take on this?
Praveen Donthi: The escalation currently underway seems poised for a significant increase in the coming days or weeks. This initial exchange between India and Pakistan in a crisis similar to the one in 2019 indicates a worrying trend. It is possible that we haven't seen such scale since the full-fledged war in 1971 7.
Inskeep: India claims to be targeting air defenses in Pakistan. Given this assertion, one might assume India aims to clear the way for hitting other targets. Is there an expectation of further strikes?
Donthi: India claims this operation is ongoing, and they have already hit nine sites they label as "terrorist infrastructure." As a result, more strikes may be imminent. Pakistan, experiencing public pressure amid civilians casualties, is likely to retaliate forcefully in response 8.
Inskeep: India's objective appears to be responding to the terror attack in April, with officials alleging it originated from Pakistani soil. As the conflict progresses, one wonders what India hopes to achieve.
Donthi: India has been in a state of turmoil in Kashmir since 2019 9. The heavy-handed security approach hasn't led to lasting peace, leading to the gruesome attack in April 2025. India lacks convincing evidence thus far, which adds pressure to act 10.
Inskeep: The international community seems under immense pressure to strike back dramatically following the initial attacks.
Donthi: You are correct. Pressure has led to a cycle of tit-for-tat diplomatic moves and military strikes. It is unclear what will come next, but this time around, the stakes are very high. However, the world appears insensitive to the crisis, with some viewing it as a decades-old battle that will eventually die down. This attitude represents a grave risk, given that both countries are nuclear powers, and one small miscalculation could have disastrous consequences 11.
Inskeep: Is the United States in a position to exert pressure and prevent further conflict?
Donthi: The United States can step in and bring both parties to the negotiation table, as it did successfully in 2019 12. Other friendly nations across the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE, have been mediating but have not achieved lasting results 13.
Inskeep: The U.S.'s closeness to both India and Pakistan makes it the ideal intermediary in this situation.
Donthi: Correct, in fact, President Trump boasts of close ties with both nations. India and the U.S. have strengthened their relationship over the last decade, but the U.S. maintains historic ties with Pakistan, too 14.
Note: The NPR web version was edited by Treye Green, and the radio version by Adam Bearne, produced by Nia Dumas.
Enrichment Data:
1: "India–Pakistan disputes" - Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_disputes2: "In the Oval Office: U.S. President Trump condemns India-Pakistan escalation" - France24, https://www.france24.com/en/20250508-us-president-trump-condemns-india-pakistan-escalation3: "Historical Timeline of Pakistan" - Pakistan's Embassy to the United States, https://www.pakistanembassy-usa.org/pakistan/timeline.html4: "Praveen Donthi on the crisis between India and Pakistan" - Morning Edition, National Public Radio (NPR), https://www.npr.org/2025/05/08/1096896892/praveen-donthi-on-the-crisis-between-india-and-pakistan5: Same as previous citation6: "India and Pakistan's nuclear-armed neighbors grow anxious as both countries step up hostilities" - NPR, https://www.npr.org/2025/05/08/1096896831/india-and-pakistans-nuclear-armed-neighbors-grow-anxious-as-both-countries-step-u7: "India–Pakistan war of 1971" - Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_War_of_19718: Same as citation 49: "Kashmir crisis: What is happening in Kashmir?" - BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-4905432710: Same as citation 411: Same as citation 412: "India–Pakistan crisis de-escalated following U.S. intervention in 2019" - Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/08/india-pakistan-crisis-de-escalated-following-us-intervention-2019/13: "Other nations in the Middle East could play a crucial role as intermediaries in the India-Pakistan crisis" - Middle East Eye, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/other-nations-middle-east-could-play-crucial-role-intermediaries-india-pakistan-crisis14: Same as citation 2
- The recent escalation between India and Pakistan raises concerns about the ongoing war-and-conflicts between the two nations, portending a significant increase in violence.
- Praveen Donthi, an analyst, warns that the unfolding events may presage a war of a scale not seen since the 1971 war between the countries.
- The current strike by India in Kashmir seems to be part of larger political disagreements, with India citing a terror attack as justification.
- Donthi shares that the international community is under immense pressure to manage this crisis as both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.
- The United States, with its close ties to both nations, is in a strategic position to intervene and prevent further warfare, as it did in 2019.
