Discussion on Sverdlovsk Governor Election wraps up, featuring expert insights from Ilya Gorfinkel (OG)
Record-Breaking Turnout in Sverdlovsk Region's Gubernatorial Elections
The gubernatorial elections in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia are seeing a high turnout, with 38.42% of the votes cast as of 6 PM. This turnout, if maintained, will be a record for the series of gubernatorial elections that began in the region in 2017 and nationwide in 2012.
The high turnout is attributed to two main factors: the use of remote electronic voting and the three-day voting period. The three-day voting period is strategically beneficial as it indicates political legitimacy, involvement of people in regional affairs, and the fact that the region's fate matters to them.
In cities with populations over 100,000, voter turnout is roughly the same as in smaller towns and rural areas, but lower than in Yekaterinburg, ranging from 30-33%. In contrast, rural areas and small towns, particularly in remote locations, have a stronger inertia of voting by tradition, impacting the turnout.
Interestingly, the outskirts of cities are areas of intense housing construction, with relatively affordable prices. However, the people in these newly constructed areas haven't fully integrated into city life yet, which may impact their voting behavior.
The turnout in Volchansk is significantly higher due to the opening of a new tram line. On the other hand, Yekaterinburg is likely to have one of the lowest turnouts due to the specificity of the megacity. Within Yekaterinburg, the Kirovsky District has a higher turnout than the Chkalovsky District, with 32% compared to less than 20%.
Despite the lack of detailed, publicly available, and city- or district-specific voting results, it is generally known that the Sverdlovsk region tends to vote differently. The larger cities, such as Yekaterinburg, Nischni Tagil, and Kamensk-Uralski, are politically diverse and less loyal to the ruling party United Russia, while rural areas and smaller industrial cities often show a greater loyalty.
In Yekaterinburg, the city has in the past shown a notably high proportion of protest votes or rejection of the Kreml candidate, similar to Moscow or St. Petersburg. Nischni Tagil and other industrial cities are politically mixed but less liberal than Yekaterinburg.
The attitude towards local authorities significantly influences election results. Typically, the highest voter turnout for the Kreml candidate is found in rural areas, smaller cities, and regions with a high proportion of state employees, traditional industries, and military installations. The lowest voter turnout for the Kreml candidate is usually seen in the larger cities, particularly Yekaterinburg, but also in university towns or areas with a strong middle class and independent media.
This assessment is based on general political trends in Russian regions, historical voting results (such as those without political competition), and analyses by NGOs, experts, and opposition media. Officially, detailed, city- or district-specific voting results are seldom published or difficult to access from the Russian state.
For more precise, up-to-date data, targeted requests to Russian authorities, NGOs, or experts would be necessary, but these are associated with political and practical hurdles.
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