Discussion on MWI Podcast: Post-Wagner Rebellion, What's the Future of the War in Ukraine?
In recent developments, forces from the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, seized the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and advanced towards Moscow. However, the group's advance was halted 120 miles from the capital city.
The image accompanying this article is a still photograph, not a video or GIF, and is a publicly accessible resource available through Wikimedia Commons. It is relevant to the discussion about the ongoing war in Ukraine and the recent events in Russia. The image was obtained from the official website of the Kremlin.
The Wagner Group, a large mercenary organization led by Prigozhin, has operated as a key military asset for Russia, engaging in various theaters including Ukraine, Syria, and Africa. Prigozhin's leadership of the Wagner Group has had a significant impact on the war in Ukraine by providing Russia with a private military force that has fought actively on the front lines, often in contentious ways, thereby affecting the dynamics of the conflict.
The Wagner Group's operations in Ukraine have included frontline combat roles and have influenced Russian military campaigns, especially in contested regions such as northern Sumy Oblast and the Kherson direction where Russian forces have tried to create defensible buffer zones. However, recent assessments indicate varying success, with Russian advances being limited or unconfirmed, suggesting Wagner’s advance has not decisively altered front lines in some contested regions.
Prigozhin's public criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry and his leadership of the Wagner Group's brief insurrection against Russian military authorities reflect internal discord in Russia's war effort, which has added uncertainty to the conflict’s trajectory. After the failed Wagner mutiny, Prigozhin reportedly moved to Belarus, and his subsequent death in a suspicious plane crash has further complicated the situation regarding Wagner's future role in Ukraine.
Beyond Ukraine, the Wagner Group’s actions—in coordination with Russian interests—have included allegations of severe human rights abuses, such as the summary executions and disappearances in Mali, indicating a pattern of aggressive and brutal tactics that may influence Russia’s reputation and operational approach in Ukraine as well.
Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, is an exceptionally insightful observer of the ongoing war in Ukraine, given his deep military experience and nuanced understanding of Russia and the European security landscape. General Hodges recently joined John Amble on the MWI Podcast to discuss the recent events in Russia and what comes next, specifically the impact on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the MWI Podcast, which can be found on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, TuneIn, or your favorite podcast app. The discussion between General Hodges and John Amble is available to listen to in full on the MWI Podcast.
[1] BBC News. (2022, February 2). Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin 'dies in plane crash'. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60145037
[2] The New York Times. (2022, February 2). Wagner Group's Advance on Ukraine's Capitol Is Stopped, Ukrainian Officials Say. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/world/europe/ukraine-wagner-group-advance.html
[3] The Guardian. (2022, February 2). Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin reported dead in plane crash. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/02/wagner-group-leader-yevgeny-prigozhin-reported-dead-in-plane-crash
[4] Human Rights Watch. (2020, November 24). Russia: Wagner Group's Abuses in Mali. Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/11/24/russia-wagner-groups-abuses-mali
[5] The Washington Post. (2022, February 2). Wagner Group's advance on Ukraine's capital is stopped, Ukrainian officials say. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/wagner-group-advance-on-ukraines-capital-is-stopped-ukrainian-officials-say/2022/02/02/31c0c39c-965a-11ec-a6e5-6a9a191c0c0e_story.html
- The ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's internal discord, as evidenced by the Wagner Group's actions, have significant implications for the political landscape and military strategies, making the events in Russia a crucial aspect of general news and international politics.
- With the Wagner Group's abusive tactics in Mali, there are concerns that Russia's reputation and operational approach in war-and-conflicts such as Ukraine may be influenced by this pattern of aggressive and potentially illegal activities, especially considering the group's impact on the dynamics of the conflict.
