Discussingthe Proposed Nuclear Arms Accord Between Putin and the U.S.
In the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the nuclear arms race between the United States and Russia remains a pressing concern. The last remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control treaty, New START, is set to expire in about six months, creating a sense of urgency to negotiate a follow-on agreement to prevent unrestricted nuclear arsenals.
The upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump is expected to address this issue, among others. The New START treaty, which came into force in 2011 and was extended for five more years in 2021, limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia can deploy, with each limited to no more than 1,550 and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers.
However, the path to a new agreement is fraught with challenges. Both Presidents Trump and Putin have indicated interest in talks on controlling strategic nuclear arms, but it remains unclear if they will maintain current limits while negotiating or allow nuclear restrictions to lapse temporarily.
One of the key contentious issues is Russia's plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles without any restrictions, a move that could potentially trigger an arms race in shorter- and intermediate-range missiles that can also carry nuclear warheads. This, coupled with the U.S.'s plans to expand missile defenses and Russia's nuclear modernization efforts, complicates negotiations.
Russia characterizes the geopolitical environment as posing "colossal threats" necessitating an update and strengthening of its nuclear capabilities, indicating less willingness to reduce or restrict its arsenal. In contrast, the U.S. views Russia as violating many arms control agreements, and this mutual distrust hampers cooperative arms control efforts.
The geopolitical context, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, significantly affects the talks. The summit is primarily focused on the conflict in Ukraine, with Russian forces gradually advancing. There is concern the U.S. might be pressured into rewarding Russia’s territorial gains or might be distracted from Ukraine by offers on arms control or economic cooperation by Russia.
At present, there are limited existing frameworks for reliable dialogue or escalation mitigation, and nuclear saber-rattling remains a risk factor. Both sides are signaling strength but lack trust to formalize controls anytime soon.
Progress in the summit towards a new arms control treaty could potentially prevent new sanctions on Russia and its oil and other key export buyers. It could also help Putin argue for engagement on wider peace issues. However, the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, looms as a significant deadline that could precipitate an unprecedented arms race unless a new agreement is reached.
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