Discussing Government Strategies: Employing Incentives and Sanctions Strategically
In 2019, President Trump took a significant step in the realm of arms control when he withdrew the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, citing Russian non-compliance as the main reason. The U.S. had suspended compliance earlier in February 2019 and gave Russia six months to return to compliance, which did not happen. Russia, in a mirror response, suspended the treaty and began developing intermediate-range missiles, including land-based and sea-launched systems that were formerly prohibited under the treaty.
The INF treaty, signed in 1987 by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, had been widely credited with contributing to the fall of communism and renewed ties between the East and West. It banned ground-launched nuclear and conventional missile systems within a certain range and put in place a strict monitoring system.
Following the U.S. withdrawal, the Department of Defense announced plans to test a new type of missile that would have violated the treaty. This included research and development of potential INF-class missile systems focusing on precision theater-range delivery of conventional warheads rather than nuclear ones. The Trump administration's actions marked a significant deterioration in arms control between the U.S. and Russia, increasing tensions and nuclear risks.
Russia responded to the U.S. actions by deploying nuclear-capable submarines near Russian waters, which the Kremlin cited as provocative and contributing to the collapse of nuclear stability. The collapse of the INF treaty sparked concerns among analysts and lawmakers. Some supported the U.S. withdrawal due to Russia’s cheating and the rise of China’s arsenal, while others worried that leaving unilaterally handed Russia a symbolic victory and could lead to a renewed arms race in Europe, with Russia quickly deploying missiles near NATO allies and the U.S. taking years to establish parity.
In a different context, the strategy of offering a carrot in the form of a new or expanded issue that your counterpart values highly but that matters less to you, then proposing a tradeoff on an issue or issues you value more, was highlighted by President Trump's offer of a deal on the DACA issue. However, this offer was rejected by Democrats, who stated they would not sacrifice the well-being of other immigrants to protect the Dreamers.
In conclusion, the collapse of the INF treaty signified a turning point in U.S.-Russia relations, leading to increased tensions and nuclear risks. The best negotiators are relentlessly curious about their counterparts' interests and ready to share information about their own interests. Knowing what each side values will open the door to productive trades. Discussing multiple issues simultaneously will help you make valuable linkages and identify potential tradeoffs that will create value or break a stalemate.
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