Diplomatic Tactics Explored: Wielding Incentives and Penalties Strategically in Government Talks
The INF Treaty, a landmark agreement signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, which banned ground-launched nuclear and conventional missile systems within a certain range, faced its demise in 2019. The treaty's collapse was triggered by escalating tensions between the United States and Russia, following the U.S.'s decision to add a sea-launched cruise missile to its nuclear arsenal.
In February 2018, the U.S. Department of Defense released a Nuclear Posture Review, proposing the addition of a sea-launched cruise missile to the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hinted that the cruise missile was intended as a bargaining chip for future arms control negotiations with Russia. However, Russia strongly opposed the move, calling it confrontational and anti-Russian. In response, Russia resumed development and deployment of intermediate-range nuclear-capable systems.
The Trump administration accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty by deploying the 9M729 cruise missile and responded by suspending U.S. compliance in February 2019, threatening to withdraw if Russia did not comply within six months. Despite the U.S.'s efforts, Russia did not comply, and the Trump administration formally withdrew from the INF Treaty on August 2, 2019.
Following the U.S.'s withdrawal, Russia also suspended the treaty and confirmed development of new intermediate-range missile systems. The collapse of the treaty has led to heightened tensions, renewed intermediate-range missile deployments by both sides, and concerns over a new arms race and erosion of nuclear arms control architecture.
Meanwhile, in immigration news, DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) expired in March 2018. Upon taking office, President Biden issued an executive order reinstating DACA, providing relief for the estimated 650,000 young immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
In January 2018, President Donald Trump presented a legislative proposal regarding DACA, expanding the discussion and offering a path to citizenship for eligible DACA recipients who had not previously applied. However, Trump's offer came with significant strings attached, including a $25 billion fund for a border wall with Mexico, dramatic increases in arrests and deportation of other undocumented immigrants, an end to a program set up to encourage migration from underrepresented countries, and preventing citizens from sponsoring their foreign-born parents as citizens. The offer was designed to appeal to centrists and conservatives in Congress and was met with rejection by Democrats, who called it a nonstarter.
In negotiation, offering something the counterpart values in return is often necessary to get a concession. If you don't seem to have anything of value to offer, you might be able to create an issue to serve as a bargaining chip. In February 2021, President Biden renewed a different weapons treaty with Russia, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, with the goal of preventing future arms races and monitoring Russian compliance with the treaty's terms.
The best negotiators are relentlessly curious about their counterparts' interests and ready to share information about their own interests. Agreeing up front that nothing's decided until everything's decided and discussing multiple issues simultaneously will help identify tradeoffs and make valuable linkages in negotiations. Making package offers increases the odds of reaching a deal that works for both parties.
In conclusion, the addition of the sea-launched cruise missile by the U.S. did not revive INF Treaty negotiations but instead contributed to the treaty's demise as both countries escalated missile development and deployment outside the treaty's constraints. The reinstatement of DACA, on the other hand, provides a glimmer of hope for the estimated 650,000 young immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
- The decision to add a sea-launched cruise missile to the U.S. nuclear arsenal in 2018 was initially proposed as a bargaining chip for future arms control negotiations with Russia, highlighting the strategic use of weapons in diplomatic negotiations, much like in business or politics.
- In the realm of immigration, President Trump's proposal for DACA in January 2018 offered a path to citizenship for eligible DACA recipients, but with significant strings attached, demonstrating how communication in negotiation can either foster understanding or escalate tensions.
- In an attempt to prevent future arms races, President Biden renewed the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia in February 2021, emphasizing the importance of negotiations in finding common ground, even in general-law matters that involve complex strategic and political issues.
