Did Sean McDermott’s risky overtime call cost the Bills a win?
A controversial overtime decision by Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott has sparked debate about NFL strategy. His choice to defend first in a recent game against the Denver Broncos may have cost his team the win. The outcome has also raised questions about whether such calls could impact his future with the franchise.
The issue highlights a broader trend: despite new overtime rules, many coaches still opt to defer possession, even when statistics suggest it could hurt their chances.
The Bills and Broncos played into overtime, with neither team scoring on their first possession. Denver eventually won by scoring on their third drive. Under current NFL rules, the team that wins the toss often chooses to defend first—something 12 of 17 coaches have done this season alone.
The logic behind defending first is to see how the opponent performs before taking the ball. However, this approach carries risks. If both teams match scores in their first two possessions, the team that kicked first faces a disadvantage in extended play. So far, teams receiving the ball first have won nine times, lost seven, and tied once under the new rules.
McDermott’s decision mirrors choices made by other coaches, including Ben Johnson. Yet, with punting now more effective and kickoff rules favouring better field position, starting on offence could offer a clearer advantage. No recent reports confirm coaches deliberately choosing to defend first to shorten games, but the strategy remains common despite the potential drawbacks.
Coaches may now rethink their approach to avoid similar outcomes in future overtime scenarios. The data suggests that taking the ball first increases winning chances, making the decision to defer a calculated risk rather than a clear benefit.
The Bills’ loss to Denver puts McDermott’s judgement under scrutiny. His choice to defend first in overtime, while not uncommon, may have played a role in the defeat. Moving forward, teams could adjust their strategies to prioritise early possession, given the statistical edge it provides. The debate over overtime tactics is likely to continue as coaches weigh tradition against analytics.
