navigating the tightrope: Germany's tense road to the 2026 World Cup and the significance of the Nations League match against Portugal
DFB squad set for World Cup clash with Portugal
Share on Facebook Twitter WhatsApp Email Print Copy Link Two victories in a row, and the German national football team would clinch the Nations League title, led by coach Julian Nagelsmann. Yet, the specter of the 2026 World Cup already looms near.
Nagelsmann is dead set on claiming the Nations League crown. However, the team's performance in the final tournament holds significant implications for the World Cup. If the German football team triumphs in the UEFA competition, it will earn a substantial number of points in the world rankings, almost ensuring a top position in the seeding pot for the World Cup draw in December.
But, a loss in the semi-final against Portugal in Munich on Wednesday (21:00 CET, ZDF, DAZN, and ntv.de live ticker) could spell doom for Germany's hope of grabbing the last spot in Pot 1.
Football Nagelsmann Building up Defenses: Unexpected Lineup Ahead for DFB Team The stakes are high: a defeat in the potential final against Spain or France on Sunday (20:15 CET, live on RTL, RTL+, and ntv.de live ticker) could mean a loss of points. Italy could snatch the lead with a win against Moldova the next day. The ranking used for the draw is the one at the end of the World Cup qualifiers.
travel challenges beckon
If Germany misses out on Pot 1, it could end up in Pot 2. This would mean facing tough opponents like Spain, Argentina, France, or England in the group stage. The travel challenges wouldn't come only from the tough competition but also from their potential co-host, Mexico.
Mexico's venues are either high above sea level or sweltering in the summer heat. The World Cup draw is divided into three clusters (East Coast, Center, West Coast), but venues in Mexico would still involve considerable travel distances. For example, Mexico City and Kansas City are over 2000 kilometers apart.
crunching the numbers
Nagelsmann had foreseen this predicament earlier, back in March, when a late equalizer against Italy in Dortmund sealed their fate in the crucial ninth spot in the world rankings. In Pot 1, alongside the hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico will be the top nine teams in the world rankings.
The math is tricky, involving complex formulas and weighting systems for determining the ranking used for the World Cup seeding. A win against Portugal in regular time would see Germany (1716.98 points) climb to 1730.27 points and overtake Italy (1718.31). Italy can only attain 7.49 points with a win against Norway on Friday, reaching a maximum of 1725.80 points.
Remember the fiasco? **"Who can drink beer the fastest..." After the Portugal disaster, the DFB team was well and truly down"
qualification still required
Even if the DFB team suffers a loss in the potential final against Spain or France, it could still face a reduction in points. Italy could regain the lead with a win against Moldova the following day. The ranking used for the draw will be the one at the end of the World Cup qualifiers.
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The Netherlands (1752.44), Portugal (1750.08), and Belgium (1735.75) can still nab positions from sixth to eighth. However, Croatia (1698.66) and Morocco (1694.24) lurk closely, but they may struggle to collect many more points in their World Cup qualifying rounds. Regardless of the calculations, European countries still need to qualify for the World Cup finals. Germany, in its group, will square off against Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg in the second half of the year.
Sources: ntv.de, ara/dpa
- Julian Nagelsmann
- Football National Team
- Football World Cup 2026
- Nations League
Insights:- World Cup Seeding Pots: UEFA seeding pots are determined by team records in World Cup qualifying, with Nations League performance serving as a potential playoff route for teams that don't qualify directly or as group runners-up.- Pot 1: This pot for the final playoff seeding is typically reserved for the best-performing group runners-up in World Cup qualification, not necessarily teams for the main tournament group stage draw.- Nations League: While the performance in the Nations League affects the World Cup seeding, it only provides an avenue for teams to secure playoff positions if they don't qualify directly or finish as group runners-up. A match against Portugal would influence the team's World Cup qualifying standings, but not impact its main tournament seeding pot.
I'm not going to be able to do this – unexpected lineup ahead for the German national football team as they navigate the tense road to the 2026 World Cup, with the semi-final match against Portugal yielding significant implications for the team's pot placement in the World Cup draw. A defeat in the match could potentially relegate the German team to Pot 2, engaging them with formidable opponents such as Spain, Argentina, France, or England in the group stage, and possibly presenting travel challenges due to Mexico's venues that are either high above sea level or sweltering in the summer heat.
