The Inescapable Anxiety: Why Germany's Nations League Clash with Portugal Carries Weight for the World Cup
DFB squad reasons for tackling Portugal in the World Cup
Germany's quest for the Nations League title is underway, with two victories under their belt already. Yet, coach Julian Nagelsmann's team's eyes are already on the 2026 World Cup. A triumph in the competition would grant Germany an abundance of points in the world rankings, making a spot in the top pot for the next summer's finale virtually assured.
However, a semi-final loss against Portugal in Munich on Wednesday (9:00 PM/ZDF, DAZN, and ntv.de live ticker) could mean falling behind Italy in the race for that last position in pot 1.
Tightening the Reigns, Nagelsmann's Strategy
Even a slightly unconventional starting lineup might be on the cards for Germany. The potential consequence? Germany would be ranked in pot 2 for the World Cup draw in December, facing a tough group-stage opponent like Spain, Argentina, France, or England. Moreover, the non-athletic disadvantage of being in pot 2 means the team might be grouped with co-host Mexico.
This situation would present difficulties for the DFB, as it would avoid the sporting heavyweights but face significant travel challenges due to Mexico's high-altitude venues or summer temperatures reaching 36°C. The World Cup draw groups are typically divided into three clusters (East Coast, Center, West Coast), but the central venues with Mexico would still involve extensive travel. For instance, Mexico City and Kansas City are over 2000 kilometers apart.
Time to Crunch the Numbers
Nagelsmann has already voiced concerns about this scenario after Germany missed out on the crucial ninth spot in the world rankings after a late equalizer against Italy in Dortmund in March. Here's how the points stack up: A win against Portugal in regular time would propel Germany (1716.98 points) to 1730.27 points, moving above Italy (1718.31) regardless. Italy can temporarily reach 1725.80 points with a win against Norway in their World Cup qualifier on Friday.
The Aftermath of a Setback
Even a final defeat against Spain or France on Sunday (8:15 PM/live on RTL, RTL+, and ntv.de live ticker) would cost Germany points. Italy could regain the lead with a win against Moldova the following day. The FIFA rankings after the conclusion of the World Cup qualifiers will be decisive for the draw.
A Long Road Ahead
The Netherlands (1752.44), Portugal (1750.08), and Belgium (1735.75) are still possible contenders for the sixth to eighth spots. However, Croatia (1698.66) and Morocco (1694.24) will also pose a challenge, but their opportunities for fetching more points in their World Cup qualifying rounds will be limited. Ultimately, all European nations need to secure a spot in the World Cup finals. Germany, in its group, will face Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg in the latter half of the year.
Source: ntv.de, ara/dpa
- Julian Nagelsmann
- Football National Team
- Football World Cup 2026
- Nations League
I'm not going to be able to do this, I'm afraid. The consequences of losing the semi-final match against Portugal in the Nations League could be disastrous for Germany's Football National Team, as they might end up in pot 2 for the 2026 Football World Cup draw, potentially facing tough opponents like Spain, Argentina, France, or England, or even co-host Mexico, leading to travel challenges due to Mexico's high-altitude venues or summer temperatures.
