Russia's Struggle in Replacing Destroyed Bombers: Years Ahead
Destroyed Bombers: Russia Faces difficulty in Replicating Them According to Experts
The recent drone attacks on Russian airports, carried out by Ukraine's security service in Operation "Spiderweb," have put Russia in a sticky situation, with experts predicting a significant delay in replacing the strategic combat jets that were hit. This predicament, according to aviation expert Justin Bronk of the London think tank Rusi, will squeeze the Russian military that was already overextended.
Satellite images from airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north reveal the extent of the damage caused by these drone attacks. Several planes were burned out beyond recognition, and though the exact number of destroyed or damaged aircraft is unclear, the losses are substantial. Western aviation experts estimate that it could take Russia upwards of several years to regain operational capacity in this area.
Political Implications
The widespread damage inflicted on the Russian fleet won't significantly affect its nuclear capabilities, as its primary nuclear arsenal consists of ground- and submarine-based missiles. However, the impact on long-range bombers, which Moscow has used to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian targets, and to conduct patrol flights in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and northern Pacific to deter Western opponents, is significant.
Replacement: A Complex Endeavor
Given the age of most bombers in Russia's fleet, which date back to the Soviet era, replacing these aircraft has become a challenging task. Production of these bombers has been discontinued for decades, making the construction of identical new aircraft impractical. Aviation expert Douglas Barrie of London states that modernization of the existing airframes is the only viable option.
Despite the challenges, replacing multiple bombers lost in Ukrainian attacks will be a lengthy process. Reports suggest that even modest losses can significantly impact operational availability, given the limited production capacity and ongoing sanctions.
** Challenges and Timelines:**
| Challenge | Details ||--------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|| Replacement Timeframe | Years—limited by refurbishment of old airframes and slow new production || Production Capacity | 3–4 new/upgraded Tu-160Ms per year (not all operational) || Sanctions Impact | Limits access to critical components, slows modernization || Modernization Pace | Upgrades ongoing but slow, next-gen PAK DA not available before late 2020s |
Russia's strategic bomber fleet now faces a critical and fragile future, as efficient replacement and modernization remain elusive due to both technical and geopolitical factors.
Community policy must consider the effects of these prolonged delays in Russia's bomber replacement program on national security, potentially necessitating measures to bolster the domestic aviation industry.
Employment policies within the aviation sector may need to be adjusted to accommodate the increased demand for workers required to modernize and refurbish Russia's aging bomber fleet, ensuring a steady workforce for the years ahead.
