Derby Steeds Analysis: Kentucky Oaks Day Celebration at Churchill Downs
From the Trenches: Strategize Your Way to Wins on Oaks Day at Churchill Downs:
We're psyched for Kentucky Derby week y'all! But let's first tackle Friday's Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs with its mostly fillies and mares races. Get the lowdown on our top picks to score big!
Alysheba Stakes (Grade 2, $750,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:42 p.m. ET
Our Two Cents: Last year, I had my fingers crossed for the Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness, but alas, he faded to 15th. However, he won the Saratoga's Grade 2 Jim Dandy and the Grade 1 Travers before finishing second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic. Now tackling his first start as a 4-year-old, he's a worthy favorite, but I'm not afraid to bet against him, especially considering his only career clunker came at this track[1][2].
In this six-horse field, many feel skeptical of longshots due to the small number of runners[3]. But that's where we find value, with more chances of hitting big numbers. I'm betting on the overlooked #1 Katonah (20-1)[1][3]. He struggled in the Dubai World Cup, but his form otherwise fits this race, and the pace should benefit his late running style in juicy odds[4]. To cover all bases, I'm also including #2 Locked, who's a strong closer, in my exacta[4][5].
Wagers: #1 Katonah to Win and Place; Exacta Box 1 and 2.
LaTroeinne Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:23 p.m. ET
Our Two Cents: The Ladies' Division is strong, and we've got a chance to catch 'em here! Perfectly poised for another spoiler, we're backing #3 Literate (30-1)[6]. She's taking a giant leap in class but has qualities to win low-probability races like this one[6][8]. No worries about the likely rain at Churchill on Friday; Literate has performed well on wet and sloppy tracks[6].
Wagers: #3 Literate to Win and Place.
Eight Belles Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:07 p.m. ET
Our Two Cents: Good Cheer is undefeated and the 6-5 morning-line favorite due to her three consecutive wins at Churchill, including a 17-length romp in her lone race over a sloppy track[1][7]. However, this will be her longest race and might be a hurdle. We're seeking value in this 14-filly field.
Wagers: #9 Tenma to Win and Place. #3 Fondly to Win at 20-1. Trifecta with 3-9-11.
Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1, $1.5 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:51 p.m. ET
General Tips for the Oaks: Key factors in the Oaks include a horse's recent form, speed, and pace[8]. Strong performances in prep races such as the Ashland Stakes or the Santa Anita Oaks are valuable[11]. Horses ridden by experienced jockeys and trained by top trainers also tend to excel[11].
On the flip side, favoring longshots can also provide big returns when betting. Focus on horses with strong prospects of running well at long odds. And don't forget to weigh their performances in wet track conditions if the weather calls for rain[8].
As the scratch of #8 Five 5 removes some early pace, it's vital to reevaluate the impact on deeper closers[6][8]. Strategize your wagers accordingly!
We're not done yet! Stay tuned for more picks for the Kentucky Derby!
Sources:1. ESPN – Daily Racing Form2. Horse Racing Nation3. Bloodhorse4. Daily Racing Form5. Thoroughbred Racing Times6. Horse Race Betting7. USA Today8. Sports Betting Dime9. Bloodhorse10. USA Today11. Horse Racing Nation
- Despite some skepticism about longshots due to the small field in the Alysheba Stakes, I'm betting on the overlooked #1 Katonah at 20-1, who has a running style that benefits from juicy odds.
- In the LaTroeinne Stakes, we're backing #3 Literate at 30-1, despite her giant leap in class, as she has qualities to win low-probability races like this one and has performed well on wet and sloppy tracks.
- In the Eight Belles Stakes, despite Good Cheer being the 6-5 favorite, I'm seeking value with #9 Tenma at 12-1, who is being overlooked with top trainer Bob Baffert back at Churchill Downs and should run a similar race to Good Cheer.
- For the Kentucky Oaks, favoring longshots can provide big returns when betting, especially if horses have strong prospects of running well at long odds and have performed well in wet track conditions if necessary.
- On Oaks Day weekend, maybe consider compromising your usual betting strategy by betting on longshots that had strong performances in prep races such as the Santa Anita Oaks, as well as horses ridden by experienced jockeys and trained by top trainers.
