Derby Draw Analysis: An Insight into the Positions Drawn for the Notable Race in Kentucky
🔥 Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis:
Each Kentucky Derby draw becomes a major talking point, and for good reason. This race is the first time we won't see 20 horses breaking from the gate until next year's race. Post position significantly impacts a horse's chances, and it's time to dive into the winners and losers based on this year's draw.
First, let's review historical post results. Despite the attention on the inside posts (1-4), they've amassed much of their numbers before the expansion to a full 20-horse field. The worst post, #1, hasn't seen a winner in 28 years, and it's been almost a decade since a horse finished in the top 3. Anomalies include the 6 and 17 posts. Being between #5 and #10 is generally considered the best starting position. The 6's 2%-win rate has more to do with the horses breaking from that gate than the post. The dreaded #17 is still seeking its first win. However, I'd argue it has yet to produce a winner due to variance rather than its curse.
#WHO'S OUT OF LUCK?
The speed horses! In an unexpected turn of events, we're now almost guaranteed a fast early pace due to the additions of Owen Almighty and East Avenue. Speed on the inside or outside needs to break with full speed ahead to secure a lead.
After the draw concluded, I noticed the speed was strategically placed. The #1 Citizen Bull, #2 Neoequos, #5 American Promise, and #20 Owen Almighty all need to bolt from the gate to secure the position they prefer. Plus, #12 East Avenue is positioned in the middle, ensuring there's speed from all three levels (inside, middle, and outside). This combination sets up for a swift initial pace. Rodriguez, stablemate of Citizen Bull and scheduled to be scratched on Thursday, may ease the pace pressure, but it's uncertain without further defections.
Given the abundance of speed and post draw, I've removed all these horses from my potential winners pool. It takes an extraordinary effort to clear this field and maintain a lead against the closers. One may make it to the Superfecta, a la Two Phils in 2023, who managed it while dealing with a fast pace, but even that is a difficult challenge.
The clear winner seems to be the favorite, Journalism. He's claimed a desirable post position on race day and boasts a trip advantage based on his nearby competitors. He should effortlessly move toward the rail while remaining mid-pack during the early stages of the race. The primary question mark revolves around field size; he's only faced more than four horses once in his career. However, this draw significantly diminishes the number of potential adversaries during the race. There will be 6-7 horses ahead of him, but his ability to choose his path to the finish line bypasses the intimidating number.
The deep closers seem poised with a better chance of closing the gap thanks to the fast early pace. Two horses in particular stood out to me:
I also wanted to mention #10 Grande, but unfortunately, he was scratched on Friday morning.
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- The Kentucky Derby in 2023 is anticipated to see widespread attention in sports and racing communities, as it will mark the first time in a year that 20 horses will break from the gate.
- In the 2023 Kentucky Derby, the horses drawn at gates 6 and 17 have historically seen mixed fortunes, with the 6 having a 2% win rate but no wins yet for the 17.
- In the 2023 Kentucky Derby, the horses with the draw numbers 1, 2, 5, 12, and 20 may have a harder time securing the positions they prefer due to the abundant speed and post draw.
- In the 2023 Kentucky Derby, horses with characteristics of deep closers, such as Tiztastic (#14) and Sovereignty (#18), may have a better chance of closing the gap thanks to the fast early pace.
