Derby Draw Analysis: A Comprehensive Review of Horse Placements for the Kentucky Derby
Turbo-Charged Trot: Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis
Thoroughbred races are a spectacle of speed, strategy, and sheer willpower. But when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the post position draw steals the limelight like no other event. The last time we'll see 20 horses charging out of the gate won't be until next year's Derby. So, let's dive into the winners and losers, taking a look at the historical performance of each post.
Now, a heads up: these numbers have been compiled over the years, including a time when the Derby didn't always feature a 20-horse field. One notable black sheep is the #1 post, last triumphant 28 long years ago, and it's been close to a decade since a horse finished in the top 3 from this position. Two surprising cases are the #6 and #17. While the #6 has a mere 2% win rate, it's less tied to the post itself, and more about the horses who've broken from there. The dismal #17 is still searching for its first win, though the poor results could be more a matter of variance than a genuine death trap.
Losers After the Draw
The speed factor comes into play now. This year's Derby was expected to be a slow-paced affair six weeks ago. But now, with the addition of Owen Almighty and East Avenue, we're almost assured of a swift start. Then, American Promise clocked an impressive workout, hinting at his desire for the front. Adding to the speed frenzy, the draw has placed four speedsters in key positions - #1 Citizen Bull, #2 Neoequos, #5 American Promise, and #20 Owen Almighty.
To make matters worse, #12 East Avenue, another speedster, is slotted in the middle of the pack, ensuring we see speed from every level. This sets the stage for an incredibly swift pace, leaving the following horses struggling to keep up: #1 Citizen Bull, #2 Neoequos, #5 American Promise, #20 Owen Almighty, and #12 East Avenue.
Winners Post-Draw
Could we have a more unfair advantage than the favorite, Journalism? Not only does he snag one of the most desired post positions on race day, but he's also set up for a clear trip advantage due to the speedy horses occupying his neighbors. In-the-know punters will be eyeing him closely as he maneuvers his way through the early stages of the race, nestling comfortably among the pack while taking advantage of his preferred rail position.
The clearANCE for closers has opened up, as evidenced by the hastily set pace. Tiztastic (#14) and Sovereignty (#18) stand as prime candidates to take full advantage of the unfolding situation. With extensive experience racing against large fields and a knack for weaving gracefully through horses, Tiztastic should be charging from the back while Mage's successor, Sovereignty, preys on the tiring front-runners with his late-race surges.
We'd also like to highlight #10 Grande, but unfortunate events have led to his withdrawal from the race.
Additional Insights:
The Kentucky Derby's post positions significantly influence race outcomes due to the large field size and 1¼-mile distance. Here's a breakdown of their advantages and disadvantages:
- Inside Positions (Posts 1-5): Provide the shortest path around the first turn, saving important ground in the early stages of the race. However, these positions also come with traffic issues and a history of lower success rates.
- Middle Positions (Posts 5-16): These positions provide an ideal balance, allowing horses to avoid early congestion while not adding excessive distance. This positions accounted for 62% of winners since 1999.
- Outside Positions (Posts 17-20+): Offer clear running for closers or tactical runners but come with the disadvantages of added distance, potentially hindering front-runners pursuing an early lead.
[1] Derby Data: How Position Affects Success[2] Kentucky Derby Post Position Handicapping Analysis[3] 2023 Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis
- The derby in 2023 promises to be a wide spectacle of sports involving horse-racing, as the race track unveils the post positions for the participants.
- Interestingly, the #1 post, a historical black sheep, has not won since 1995, and it seems that this trend might continue this year, with Citizen Bull taking up this position.
- However, some horses might jump to the lead, thanks to their speed attributes. American Promise, Neoequos, Owen Almighty, and East Avenue, assigned to posts 5, 2, 20, and 12, respectively, are expected to set a swift pace that could put other horses at a disadvantage.
- Conversely, the clearance for closers has opened up with the hastily set pace. Horses like Tiztastic (#14) and Sovereignty (#18), known for their late-race surges, could potentially win the race if they can maneuver their way through the speedsters at the front.
