Derby day expertise: Impress everyone as the knowledgeable individual discussing the Kentucky Derby horse race
Want to be a Kentucky Derby whiz without memorizing race forms or figuring out what a Beyer Speed Figure is? Don't fret! This guide has got you covered, even if you frequently pick horses based on their names, colors, or the coolness of their jockeys.
The Ultimate Kentucky Derby Guide
Discover each Kentucky Derby contender's strengths and weaknesses to make knowledgeable picks or spark some Derby party banter.
Derby Soft on the Contenders
For every horse, I'll provide a solid reason why they could win and an exciting reason they won't. Whether you're funding your bets with real insider knowledge or just bluffing at your Derby soiree, this novice's guide will turn you into the star of the show come Derby Day.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby Lineup
Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Morning Lines set for May 3rd, 2025. The odds below represent the morning line following the post draw.
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Inner Posts (1-4)
#1 Citizen Bull (20-1) – The Derby Champion
The two-year-old champ is set to begin his reign as a three-year-old champ. Trained by two-time Triple Crown winner Bob Baffert, this steed is poised for victory despite a subpar showing in the Santa Anita Derby. He doesn't need races to stay sharp. A strong workout against other competitors has him warmed up and ready for a bounce-back performance.
The Case Against
While a lax performance in the Santa Anita Derby is understandable, he looked wobbly on the day. And, if you believe he'll find softer competition in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, let's just say that ship has sailed.
#2 Neoequos (30-1) – The Derby Champion
This seasoned runner enters the race with experience under his belt, having competed in seven races. He performed well in the Florida Derby, keeping pace with a closing race flow. His trainer has a positive return-on-investment (ROI) from runners on this type of layoff. That means you may get a nice price on him.
The Case Against
He's finished 3rd twice against stronger Florida circuit horses. If he can't break through the competition in Florida, then what chance does he have against this tough field? His trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., is a star in Florida but has left something to be desired outside of the Sunshine State.
Inner Middle Posts (5-10)
#6 Admire Daytona (30-1) – The Derby Champion
The Japanese path to the Derby has become stronger each year, and they're finally set to take the crown. This steed lost to Luxor Cafe by a mere nose in Tokyo last November. He backed up that form with a stellar showing in the UAE Derby. The Bluegrass State is about to witness an international breakthrough.
The Case Against
The UAE Derby has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. Japanese horses tend to struggle with the transition from the Middle East to Louisville. If his performance against Luxor Cafe in February is any indication, this colt might just be a paper tiger.
#8 Luxor Cafe (15-1) – The Derby Champion
Watch the turn of foot from the #11 (silks in yellow and pink hat) and prepare to be amazed! The Japanese have dominated the world's most prestigious races, and they're primed for a Derby victory. With a field filled with question marks, this contender is ready to shine.
The Case Against
While past Japanese Derby contenders have been hyped, Forever Young couldn't get the job done. Can we expect a tabby cat to do what a tiger couldn't?
Middle Posts (11-15)
#14 Tiztastic (20-1) – The Derby Champion
This contender boasts impressive class in this group. He's 3-for-3 against other Derby tippets, and his last two Beyer speed figures are pegged to beat anything in this field. This runner has the perfect draw for success.
The Case Against
Trainer Dale Romans has only saddled one Derby horse in his solo career, finishing 9th. Tiztastic found himself in traffic during a 5-horse field in the Santa Anita Derby. He's ready to face 19 runners in Louisville? We'll see about that.
Outer Middle Posts (16-20)
#17 Sandman (6-1) – The Derby Champion
Sandman has demonstrated steady improvement in his last three starts, finishing with stronger speed figures and placing finishes. This horse is just starting to peak. The stronger pace in the Kentucky Derby should set him up for a strong late run.
The Case Against
Despite his recent improvement, he's yet to claim a graded stakes win, and his figures remain light compared to the top contenders. Can you really bet on a horse that hasn't won a race in his life? Even with the glass slipper on, the momentum might just run out for this potential Cinderella story.
Longshots and Overlooked Horses to Keep an Eye On
- Publisher (20-1): A late bloomer with significant improvement in his last three starts, a new jockey for good measure, and the Kentucky Derby screams value for this underdog.
- chunk of Gold (30-1): A horse who nearly stole a Derby victory with Two Phils in 2023 might do it again. His recent steeplechase career might be giving him the edge in this year's Derby.
With the 2025 Kentucky Derby on the horizon, your opportunity to impress friends and family, or simply get some solid trash talk brewing, is just around the corner. Use this comprehensive guide to make your picks, play the field, and enjoy the spectacle that is the most exciting two minutes in sports. Don't forget to tag @handicappingT3 when you strike gold! Derby Day is finally here!
- Even if you're not a sports enthusiast who's been memorizing race forms or deciphering Beyer Speed Figures, this guide will transform you into the smartest horse-racing expert on Derby Day.
- Each Kentucky Derby contender's strengths and weaknesses are detailed in this guide, empowering novices to make informed picks or ignite intriguing Derby party discussions.
- For every Derby horse, this guide provides a reason they could win and an exciting reason they might not, whether you're betting with real insider knowledge or just bluffing at your Derby soiree.
- In the midst of the longshots and overlooked horses, keep an eye on Publisher (20-1) - a late bloomer with substantial improvement in his last three starts, a new jockey, and an enticing underdog opportunity in the Kentucky Derby.
