Derby Day at Churchill Downs: Tuley's Insights on Thoroughbred Racing

Wagering Wisdom with Ty's Turf Tips: Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day

Gear up for the thrilling races at Churchill Downs as we delve into the action-packed Derby day lineup, steering clear of the customary betting favorites and navigating towards enticing longshots!

In the spirit of our past Kentucky Oaks and VSiN betting guides, the anticipation for the Run for the Roses will not disappoint. While Journalism remains the 3-1 morning-line favorite, greedy bettors yearn for that sweet taste of victory from an unexpected underdog. Remember: these young colts are just like teenage boys, continuously improving, and the key lies in determining who's peaking on the very first Saturday in May.

As the favorite hasn't won the last six years since Justify in 2018, we are primed to recognize the overlooked contenders who'll offer immense value. Let's explore a few hidden gems that stood out from our initial handicap and could reap substantial rewards in the lucrative pools.

Pat Day Mile (Grade 2, $600,000)

Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:53 p.m. ET

Many have Madaket Road at the head of the pack, and while he's shown potential to lead the field, an avalanche of speedy competitors could disrupt his chances. Instead, we're taking a vivacious chance on the 12-1 longshot, Smoken Wicked (#4). Having fallen off the Derby trail after a 13th-place finish in Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes, this steed may return to his form from winter, flaunting victories at Churchill and Fair Grounds. If we can bank on double-digit odds, we're on to a winner.

Wagers: #4 Smoken Wicked to Win (Place only if double digits).

Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1, $1.25 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:57 p.m. ET

While ty aims to provide Oaks picks in the following issue, expert analysis points to contenders like Fondly (#3) at 20-1 in the Kentucky Oaks as tantalizing dark horses, worth considering for a flurry of longshot wagers.

Kentucky Derby (Grade 1, $5 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 12, 6:57 p.m. ET

Since exact odds may shift between the time of publication and race day, we've chosen three alternatives that offer promising longshot possibilities as of now:

Citizen Bull: CBS analysts favor this colt as a value-packed longshot with the potential to steal the show at Derby.
Luxor Cafe: VSiN’s Millie Ball heavily endorses this dedicated contender with a powerful Japanese pedigree and top-notch closing potential.
East Avenue: VSiN's lone pick, East Avenue, emerged as a 22-point Beyer Speed Figure improver boasting longshot odds.

Wagers: #14 Tizatastic—our top pick—to Win and Place; and a tantalizing 3-8-14-Citizen Bull-Luxor Cafe-East Avenue Exacta box.

Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)

Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:38 p.m. ET

Similar to sprinters on any turf, speed tends to be the top preference among bettors. However, closing runners like the 12-1 underdog, Eamonn (#11), are often overlooked. As the consistency king among late runners, Eamonn showcases dependable potential, closing big for a win two races back and coming up short by mere margins last time out. A fair price, indeed.

Wagers: #11 Eamonn to Win and Place.

Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 10, 4:50 p.m. ET

Frequently overshadowed as tucked away in the Pick 6, the Derby City Distaff remains a wide-open race with no clear frontrunner. Here, we're anticipating that Bob Baffert, fresh from his return to Churchill after suspension, will have a winner. Expect that happening with the promising #12 Hope Road (15-1), a 4-year-old filly who typifies a late-bloomer. She'll complete a four-race win streak if she can pull off a victory at Churchill Downs.

Wagers: #12 Hope Road to Win and Place.

American Turf Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:06 p.m. ET

While late runners are favored for this marathon race, we've taken a long shot on the 10-1 contender Mi Bago (#4). This frequent wire-to-wire victor may steal the race with his blistering speed, with many in the field likely to hesitate betting on an underdog with no extensive graded stakes experience.

Wagers: #4 Mi Bago to Win (Place only if double digits).

By embracing the guts and glamour of longshot wagers, we'll pin our hopes on the unpredictable world of horse racing and uncork a plethora of thrilling possibilities. To venture is to win, and Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs offers the perfect playground for taking that chance. Enjoy the races!

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In the Pat Day Mile race at Churchill Downs, Smoken Wicked (#4) is a 12-1 longshot that we're betting on, despite Madaket Road being the favorite.
Fondly (#3) at 20-1 in the Kentucky Oaks could be a tempting dark horse, worth considering for longshot wagers.
Citizen Bull is a value-packed longshot for the Kentucky Derby, favored by CBS analysts.
Eamonn (#11) is a 12-1 underdog in the Turf Sprint Stakes, often overlooked but capable of delivering a win.
Hope Road (#12) is a 4-year-old filly in the Derby City Distaff Stakes, expected to win with trainer Bob Baffert's return to Churchill after suspension.