Derby Day at Churchill Downs: Tuley's Analysis of the Thoroughbred Race

Twitter Facebook Email## A Lively Take on the Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs:

Gear up, y'all! The Kentucky Derby is back – one of our favorites at Tuley's Takes!

In the VSiN Betting Guide, we've called out that the most likely winner, according to the odds, is Journalism (3-1). But as a seasoned veteran knows, I ain't one to eat chalk and leave opportunities for profit untouched. The beauty of this race lies in the young, unpredictable horses we're betting on – they're just like teenage boys, who can make a huge leap in performance in a single day. The challenge is finding the ones that are primed and peaking on Derby Day. Mind you, the favorite ain't won the last six years since Justify in 2018, and the winner often goes unnoticed among the betting public who tend to bet on the winners of prep races.

While these colts are running the 1 ¼-mile distance for the first time and contending with loud crowds and traffic in a 19-horse field, it's crucial to remember that a lot can still go wrong, even with the best horse. That's why we love the potential for high payouts, especially in the exactas – they can reach $100s, just like in 2019 with Country House's win where he returned $3,009.60 after being declared the winner after Maximum Security was disqualified. The trifecta can return $1,000s, and a superfecta can be life-changing with the right connections – Giacomo's super in 2005 paid a record $864,253.50.

With such a wide-open race, there's plenty of opportunity to profit, even on days when we don't snag the Derby winner. So let's dive into the undercard races and get some value picks before we finalize our big play on the Derby itself and update on the weather forecast and track conditions.

Pat Day Mile (Grade 2, $600,000)

Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:53 p.m. ET

My Bet: Madaket Road might be the 2-1 morning favorite with the expectations of wiring the field, but there's plenty of other speed and possibly a setup for a stalker. I'm banking on #4 Smoken Wicked (12-1) to return to the form he was showing last winter with wins at Churchill and Fair Grounds. By betting digits, we're getting a steal in my book.

Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)

Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:38 p.m. ET

My Bet: Sprint races often lead people to chase speed, but it's the closers that often get overlooked. My pick here is the consistent #11 Eamonn (12-1), who's likely to go off at a fair price.

American Turf Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:06 p.m. ET

My Bet: I'm taking a flier on #4 Mi Bago (10-1), who could be the lone speed and steal this race. With enough handicappers drawing the line through him, it may create great value and a winning opportunity.

Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 10, 4:50 p.m. ET

My Bet: In the thick of the Pick 6, this race is often overlooked, but it offers plenty of betting opportunities. I'm going with #12 Hope Road (15-1) as my top value play. She's a consistent runner who broke her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion, just what we need at a nice price.

Kentucky Derby (Grade 1, $5 million)

Churchill Downs, Race 12, 6:57 p.m. ET

My Final Pick: After considering all the scratches and evaluating the field, I've landed on #14 Tiztastic as my top value play for the 2025 Derby. He's a deep closer (and ridden by jockey Joel Rosario, so I upgrade them in that regard) with a Churchill Downs second and third-place finish to his name. My second choice would be #21 Baeza, the late-developing colt who nearly won the Santa Anita Derby to the favorite. Set to further explore longshot opportunities in the 3-8-14-21 Exacta and Trifecta boxes, and a Superfecta with #17 Sandman.

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Derby Day Deep Dive:

Based on VSiN's Mike Somich analysis, we've highlighted some potential longshot picks for the Kentucky Derby:

Final Gambit: Expects to find a slow pace and save ground to mount a late drive. Last year's Turfway Park winner at 15-1 showed great promise.
East Avenue: A closer who saw a 22-point Beyer improvement, poised for a promising performance.
Tiztastic: The Louisiana Derby winner with Churchill Downs experience and excellent late-finishing abilities.
Baeza: The "Also-Eligible" colt who nearly won the Santa Anita Derby, could surprise if he draws in.

Moreover, consider longshots Render Judgment, Admire Daytona, Luxor Cafe, and Sandman, who offer potential upside with lower betting expectations. Lastly, international entrants like Cryptohaze, Twenty Four Seven, and Tiger Moth have the potential to make waves in the Derby, though they're harder to handicap due to their lack of racing experience in the United States. Good luck and may the best horse win!

The Kentucky Derby is a sports event that hosts horse-racing, particularly thoroughbreds, with a lively atmosphere at Churchill Downs.
In sports betting, the odds for the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby currently favor Journalism (3-1), but seasoned veterans in sports betting might seek other opportunities for profit.
As the horses race towards the finish line, they will contend with various factors, including the weather and a crowded 19-horse field, making sports betting on this race unpredictable yet full of potential for high payouts.
In the undercard races at Churchill Downs, the challenge lies in finding young, unpredictable horses that are primed for peak performance on Derby Day, offering opportunities for sports betting and exciting payouts, especially in exactas and trifectas.
While making sports betting decisions for the Kentucky Derby, it's essential to consider longshot options, such as Final Gambit, East Avenue, Tiztastic, Baeza, Render Judgment, Admire Daytona, Luxor Cafe, Sandman, Cryptohaze, Twenty Four Seven, and Tiger Moth, who might offer potential upside with lower betting expectations due to their unique backgrounds or expert analysis.