Derby Day Action at Churchill Downs: Insights from Tuley's Thoroughbred Perspective
Title: 🐎🤴 Tuley's Tracks: Derby Day at Churchill Downs 2023
Welcome back, horse racing enthusiasts! We're just days away from the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and the excitement here in the Tuley's Takes office is through the roof!
As the VSiN Betting Guide says, this is a part of spring as much as the baseball season and the Masters. I also wrote about this championship event in my guide, as Journalism takes the lead as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, fresh from his victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
But I'm not here to eat up the chalk. I'm always on the hunt for a dark horse in horse racing, just like my "dog or pass" plays in other sports. And the beauty of the Derby is that these young thoroughbreds are still growing, so they can improve greatly this time of year. Finding the ones peaking on the First Saturday in May is the key to success. After all, the favorite hasn't won the last six years, and the winner is often overlooked by the majority of the betting public.
Remember, these colts are running the 1 1/4-mile distance for the first time, and they're also contending with the largest crowd they've ever heard. They're trying not to get taken out in the cavalry charge to the first turn and have to navigate the traffic in a 20-horse field. A lot can go wrong, even if you've bet on the "best horse."
And because of the wide-open nature of the race and the enormous field, the exotics can pay huge. If you can connect the dots, the Exacta (the first two finishers) can pay in the hundreds, like the $3,009.60 Exacta in 2019 with 30-1 long shot Country House. The Trifecta (top three finishers) can pay in the thousands or even change your life, with records like the $864,253.50 Superfecta in 2005 and the $557,006.49 in 2009.
With the unpredictable nature of the race, square money in the pools throughout the day often results in a profitable experience, even when we don't have the Derby winner.
Now, let's dive into some undercard races before I share my Derby picks (as I wanted to make sure I didn't finalize my plays without knowing who would scratch and how it might impact the pace, etc.) and get an updated weather forecast closer to the weekend. It seems like the rainstorm on Friday didn't affect the horses, so I'm not making major changes to my original handicap for these races.
The Pat Day Mile (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 6, 1:53 p.m. ET
My Take: The 2-1 morning-line favorite, Madaket Road, might wire the crowd, but I see several speedsters in this race that could compromise his chances and set it up for a stalker. My longshot value play is #4 Smoken Wicked at 12-1 odds, who had a rough outing in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park but might return to form. Betting digit-worthy odds is a steal, if you ask me.
Wagers: #4 Smoken Wicked to Win/Place (Place bet only if odds exceed digits)
Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade 2, $600,000)
Churchill Downs, Race 7, 2:38 p.m. ET
My Take: Turf sprint races are typically a speed-favored zone, but considering the overlooked closers can reap rewards. I'm putting my money on #11 Eamonn at 12-1, who looks to me like the most consistent late runner in the field. He closed big for a win two races back and closed well last time out while coming up short in third, so needless to say, he's worth a second look.
Wagers: #11 Eamonn to Win/Place
American Turf Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 9, 4:06 p.m. ET
My Take: The American Turf Stakes is looking to be the inverse of the prior race, with closers possibly being undervalued. I'm taking a chance on #4 Mi Bago at 10-1, who could be the lone speedster and steal the race. With many handicappers writing him off due to a rocky Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes race, #4 Mi Bago might be the underdog pick of the day.
Wagers: #4 Mi Bago to Win/Place (Place bet only if odds exceed digits)
Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade 1, $1 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 10, 4:50 p.m. ET
My Take: This race is sandwiched in the Pick 6 and might be overlooked by some, but don't let that fool you! I see a lot of potential in #12 Hope Road at 15-1. The 4-year-old filly broke her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion from an outside post, so I believe she can pull off another strong performance.
Wagers: #12 Hope Road to Win/Place
Kentucky Derby (Grade 1, $5 million)
Churchill Downs, Race 12, 6:57 p.m. ET
The Longshots: In the VSiN Derby Betting Guide, I pointed out #3 Final Gambit (30-1), #14 Tiztastic (20-1), and #21 Baeza (12-1) as my top long shots to consider. However, I will finalize my top pick closer to the race. Stay tuned, and good luck on Saturday!
Sports betting enthusiasts may find value in longshot bets during the Kentucky Derby, as the winner is often overlooked by the majority of the betting public. For instance, in the undercard races at Churchill Downs, a horse like #4 Smoken Wicked in The Pat Day Mile, priced at 12-1 odds, could potentially provide a lucrative win or place bet. Similarly, in the Turf Sprint Stakes, #11 Eamonn at 12-1 could be a profitable pick due to his consistent late running style. Meanwhile, in the American Turf Stakes, #4 Mi Bago at 10-1 could offer a chance as the potential lone speedster in the race. Lastly, in the Derby City Distaff Stakes, #12 Hope Road at 15-1 could stage a strong performance, especially considering the race's potential to be overlooked by some.
