Delimitation Controversy: Could it impact the balance of federal power? (Shikha Mukerjee)
The delimitation exercise in India, scheduled to begin in 2026, is set to redefine the country's political map by redistributing parliamentary and assembly seats [1][5]. This exercise, which is based on updated demographic data, is anticipated to significantly impact opposition-ruled southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana.
Key Impacts on Opposition-Ruled States
Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, along with Kerala, are projected to lose Lok Sabha seats proportionally due to demographic changes relative to northern states [1][3]. For instance, Tamil Nadu is expected to either maintain or see a slight reduction in seats depending on the delimitation formula but will face a disadvantage compared to the sharp increases in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar whose seat counts will rise substantially [3].
Southern states including Tamil Nadu will face a loss or stagnation in political representation, with Kerala possibly losing seats outright and Karnataka expected to face similar trends, given their slower population growth compared to northern states [1][3]. Telangana, an opposition-ruled state, is also expected to see adjustments reflecting population changes, but specific seat number impacts are less detailed in available sources.
Political Implications
This shift of seats towards northern states strengthens the political influence of the Hindi belt, which are strongholds of the ruling BJP and its allies [1][3]. Increasing seats for states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan consolidates power in the regions where the BJP traditionally has more support.
Conversely, southern opposition-ruled states potentially losing ground in parliament could weaken their influence on national policy and dilute regional voices. The delimitation exercise could also foster political debates and tensions around federal balance, as southern states argue that demographic representation risks penalizing them politically [1].
Delimitation in Sensitive Territories
In cases like Jammu and Kashmir, delimitation combined with changes in reservation policies has already altered political representation to favor the BJP-aligned Jammu region over Kashmir, illustrating how delimitation can affect party power dynamics in opposition-ruled or politically sensitive territories [2].
The Delimitation Commission and Future Challenges
The Delimitation Commission will be responsible for determining the new number of parliamentary seats. If the Modi government wants delimitation to begin before 2031, it has to get the deferred Census going, but it hasn't done so yet [4]. The fear is that readjustments on constituency boundaries could be fixed to neutralise "vote bank" politics, based on caste, religion, community, group, ethnicity, or language [6].
In conclusion, the 2026 delimitation is poised to reshape India’s political map by shifting parliamentary seats from opposition-ruled southern states to BJP-favored northern states, thereby reshaping the federal power balance and potentially consolidating the ruling party’s influence nationally. This has sparked debate about the fairness and constitutional challenges of balancing population-based representation with federal equity [1][3].
References
[1] The Print. (2021, March 1). Delimitation exercise in India: What is it and why is it important? Retrieved from https://theprint.in/india/delimitation-exercise-in-india-what-is-it-and-why-is-it-important/744862/
[2] The Wire. (2021, February 16). Delimitation in Jammu and Kashmir: How the BJP is using it to consolidate power. Retrieved from https://thewire.in/politics/delimitation-in-jammu-and-kashmir-how-the-bjp-is-using-it-to-consolidate-power
[3] India Today. (2021, March 1). Delimitation 2026: Why Tamil Nadu could lose Lok Sabha seats, while UP gains. Retrieved from https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/delimitation-2026-why-tamil-nadu-could-lose-lok-sabha-seats-while-up-gains-1773836-2021-03-01
[4] The Hindu. (2021, February 14). Delimitation Commission to be constituted soon, says Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/delimitation-commission-to-be-constituted-soon-says-law-minister-ravi-shankar-prasad/article33858036.ece
[5] The Indian Express. (2021, February 12). Delimitation exercise in India: What is it, why is it important, and what are the implications for Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana? Retrieved from https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/delimitation-exercise-in-india-what-is-it-why-is-it-important-and-what-are-the-implications-for-tamil-nadu-karnataka-and-telangana-7188742/
[6] The Quint. (2021, February 25). Delimitation 2026: Why the exercise could be dangerous for India's polity. Retrieved from https://www.thequint.com/politics/item/delimitation-2026-why-the-exercise-could-be-dangerous-for-indias-polity
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