Delhi under Modi's Leadership: Celebration for BJP, Test for BJP Leadership Following Kejriwal's Departure
The Delhi election results, announced recently, have shaken up the political landscape of India's capital city and presented a significant challenge for the anti-BJP Opposition. The BJP, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, secured a victory in Delhi, ending a 27-year wait for the party.
Delhi, a Union territory with seven parliamentary seats, is disproportionately important due to its size, wealth, and status. The population of Delhi is divided into three main groups: the middle class, the poor and marginalized, and the filthy rich or powerful. The election verdict in Delhi reveals the reservations of over 50% of voters against the BJP, as politics in Delhi is primarily about the class divide and not identity politics of caste. The combined vote share of the Opposition, including the AAP (43.5%) and the Congress (6.3%), was over 49%.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which currently forms the government in Delhi, has been characterized by the charismatic leadership of Arvind Kejriwal. Kejriwal aimed to clean up corruption, a mission that resonated with many Delhi voters, particularly the middle class, primarily composed of traders, small businesses, shopkeepers, and Central government employees. However, the BJP's victory is perceived as a verdict against Kejriwal, who is seen to have betrayed the expectations of Delhi's poor and modest middle class.
Finding a chief minister to replace Kejriwal will be a challenge. The chosen individual must appear decisive and subservient to the high command headed by Modi and Amit Shah. The AAP's defeat in the Delhi election is one example of the challenges the Opposition faces moving forward, with four big states up for elections in 2026.
The inability of the anti-BJP Opposition to formulate a strategy for fighting the BJP is identified as a collective failure. The Congress's strategy in the Delhi election, including attacking Kejriwal rather than focusing on the BJP, is criticized as a failure. The Congress's strategy in previous elections, such as Haryana and Maharashtra, is also criticized for prioritizing itself over other parties in the anti-BJP Opposition.
The infighting within the allies of the INDIA bloc, as exemplified by Omar Abdullah's jibe, is criticized as senseless and detrimental to the anti-BJP Opposition. The Congress's targeting of the AAP in the Delhi election is partly due to perceived competition in states like Punjab and partly due to insufficient focus on the BJP as the principal enemy. The Congress's strategy of attacking fellow opposition parties instead of focusing on the BJP is seen as pro-BJP by default.
The "double-engine sarkar" (BJP government) must decide whether to function under the Centre's thumb or independently, considering the peculiar character of the National Capital Territory. The "vikas" model (development model) in Delhi may face changes, with potential overhauls to health services and the school system. The "double-engine sarkar" must navigate these challenges while maintaining the support of the middle class, the poor, and the marginalized. The Delhi election verdict can be interpreted as a test for the anti-BJP Opposition, including AAP and the Congress.
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