Delaying the elections has advantageous for SPÖ party
Burning through the VIENNA election season, SPÖ is here to stay, according to experts
After the Vienna SPÖ's triumph, pollsters and political brains like Thomas Hofer and Peter Filzmaier agree - the shift of the election to Spring has proven to be beneficial for SPÖ, even without the fear of an FPÖ government in Austria. While the FPÖ might have still had potential to shake things up following a threefold surge in votes, the current SPÖ mood has been effectively exploited, the experts confirm.
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Despite Michael Ludwig's "blue-green friction tree" idea not receiving much adoration, the SPÖ handled topics that were once virulent but insignificant with tact, preventing them from gaining momentum, asserts Hofer, who approves the thorough style of the SPÖ's campaign. Filzmaier questions whether SPÖ should worry about losing power – a resounding "no" is their response.
Hofer considers it undeniable that Ludwig stands steadfast against a coalition with the FPÖ. "It's almost a SPÖ tradition," says the political consultant, acknowledging the party's long-standing antithesis to the Freedom Party. If Ludwig entertained the idea of partnering with the FPÖ, it would indeed be hazardous, warns Filzmaier, who believes that the FPÖ couldn't completely tap into its voter potential due to the unattainable chances of a government participation.
FPÖ – Nearly triple the votes, but far from triumphant
Despite the FPÖ's joy over such a significant increase in votes, Filzmaier clarifies, "It's a decent result, but neither very good nor outstanding, let alone extraordinary." According to voting data analysis, the FPÖ managed to pull in voters from the ÖVP, but its success in winning back voters who stayed home in 2020 was meager. Hofer also points out a rural-urban divide within the FPÖ.
Such a divide also haunts the ÖVP, which has little focus on economic matters in Vienna, instead emphasizing security in alignment with the FPÖ. "This won't be sustainable in the long run," reminds Hofer, expecting minimal impact on federal politics. Filzmaier likewise warns of a dismal future for the ÖVP in urban areas due to population dynamics, noting that the ÖVP lacks any relevant structures in the urban zone.
NEOS - Outshining ÖVP and giving pause for thought
According to Hofer, the ÖVP must reckon with the cold hard truth: they have been eclipsed by the NEOS, who in part, gained traction from the ÖVP's voter base. "That's the alarm bell that should be ringing loud and clear," says the political consultant. Filzmaier sees the NEOS as the model that affluent bourgeois aspire to.
Both experts believe that NEOS should keep their feet on the ground despite their impressive result. They merely avoided losing votes to the increasing number of non-voters, shifting the ratios instead. Both experts consider the Greens' elation to be warranted – they managed to maintain a relatively high starting level, says Hofer, signaling a "sign of life." Filzmaier also believes that the Greens have enough reasons to be content, as they remain stable in the double-digit range, likely securing a role in future negotiations.
The SPÖ's victory, the shifting landscape of Austria's political parties, and ongoing negotiations promise an intriguing battle for the future of Austrian politics, keeping us on our toes!
- Economic and social policy becomes a focal point for the SPÖ in their election-winning campaign, setting a factual and moderate tone that appeals to a large segment of the electorate.
- The Vienna SPÖ's success is echoed in the general news, with experts predicting that they will be a key player in policy-and-legislation moving forward.
- The FPÖ's surge in votes is not enough to unseat the SPÖ, according to Thomas Hofer and Peter Filzmaier, who attribute the SPÖ's victory to their effective handling of various issues and their firm stance against a coalition with the FPÖ.
- The NEOS party shines as an alternative for the affluent bourgeois, outperforming the ÖVP and giving pause for thought, especially as they manage to secure a role in future negotiations.
