Deepening Tensions: Exploring India's Future Amidst Deteriorating U.S.-India Relations
In the complex world of international politics, the relationship between the United States and India, two key players in Asia, has taken an unexpected turn under President Trump's second term.
The once-cordial bond between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has soured, marked by punitive tariffs on Indian goods and the US's refusal to mediate in India-China tensions or involve itself in India-Pakistan conflicts.
This deterioration has significant implications for the balance of power in Asia, particularly concerning the US strategy to counter China's growing influence. The tariffs, including a 25% duty on imports over India’s continued Russian oil purchases, raising total duties to 50%, have sparked a trade war that disrupts global supply chains and risks pushing India closer to China economically and diplomatically.
Analysts warn that these policy moves jeopardize the vital US-India partnership, which is crucial for maintaining an Asian balance of power favourable to the US by serving as a counterweight against Chinese dominance. India’s strategic importance lies in its geopolitical rivalry with China, including ongoing border disputes and competing regional ambitions.
The US under Trump has shown less willingness to support India in regional conflicts, evident from statements dismissing the US role in a potential India-Pakistan war and ignoring India's requests to mediate with China. This stance may weaken India's security calculus and regional standing.
The strained relationship has also led to economic and strategic repercussions. The tariffs could question the attractiveness of India as a safe diversification destination for foreign investment, including US companies. There could be a potential backlash among Indian consumers against US companies or decisions to buy certain products from the US, particularly in sensitive areas like defence.
However, the relationship between India and the US could improve. The downward spiral could continue if Trump does not get to a yes on a trade deal or if he takes further actions against India. Indian commentators previously believed that Donald Trump would be good news for the US-India relationship, but this is now open to question.
The tensions between India and the US could strengthen the hands of those in the Indian government who argue for less cooperation with the US and more with countries like China and Russia. About 17% of Indian goods exports go to the US, and 55% of these exports could be affected by the tariffs.
In the midst of this, Indian Prime Minister Modi is about to travel to China for the first time in seven years. This decision is independent of the Trump tariffs, but it raises questions within government about whether those who have been arguing for India to cooperate more with China on economics, even in the technology space, will start winning arguments due to these tariffs and the questionable reliability, as many Indians see it, of the US now as a partner.
This complex situation is further complicated by the personal nature of the strained relationship between Trump and Modi. Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution, author of a history on the US-India relationship, discusses this on a podcast titled 'What next for India as Trump-Modi friendship sours?'. The podcast explores the implications of this strained relationship and the potential impact on the balance of power in Asia.
[1] The Washington Post [2] The Financial Times [3] The Diplomat [4] The Economist
- The unexpected turn in the US-India relationship under President Trump's second term, marked by economic tensions and political disagreements, could have significant implications for the balance of power in Asia and the broader global economy.
- The two key players in Asia, the US and India, have seen a deterioration in their relationship, with punitive tariffs on Indian goods, refusal to mediate in India-China tensions, and a shift in US policies towards regional conflicts, which raise concerns for US investment attractiveness and regional security calculus for India.
- Analysts warn that the tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods and services could question the attractiveness of India as a safe diversification destination for foreign investment, particularly US companies. Additionally, there could be potential backlash among Indian consumers against US companies or decisions to buy certain products from the US, especially in sensitive areas like defense.
- In the face of increasing economic and strategic tensions with the US, Indian Prime Minister Modi's forthcoming visit to China could raise questions within the government about whether arguments for more cooperation with China on economics and even technology will start gaining traction among policy makers due to the current trade impasse and perceived unreliability of the US as a partner.
