The Fractured Alliance Between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State: What's the Score?
Deepening Political Divide in Lagos Materializes as Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu Encounter Frosty Relations
Things seem to be far from rosy between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, as their once robust relationship appears to be on the rocks, raising apprehensions within the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of 2027.
Despite the duo keeping mum on the issue, top APC insiders at the state, zonal, and national levels confirm a subtle but significant breakdown in the once-formidable alliance. The president's recent visit to Lagos shed light on this, with the president's chilly demeanor towards Governor Sanwo-Olu dampening spirits among observers.
A Chilly Welcome
Eyewitnesses shared that upon the president's arrival at Murtala Muhammed Airport, he reportedly bypassed a handshake with Governor Sanwo-Olu, greeting Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat instead. This move left many speculating about the state of their relationship. In an effort to downplay the controversy, media aides were allegedly instructed to edit footage of the arrival, particularly scenes that could fan the flames of speculation.
The Ghost of Victoria Island
Governor Sanwo-Olu's absence from several key events during the president's stay, especially the 50th anniversary of ECOWAS held at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, has added fuel to the fire. Traditionally, the state governor is expected to deliver a goodwill message at such events, but Sanwo-Olu's absence raised eyebrows, with many dismissing his media team's explanation that he had an 'important engagement elsewhere' as evasive.
The Battle for the Speaker's Seat
The fallout may have its roots in an alleged attempt by Sanwo-Olu to oust the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa. Reports claim that 32 of the 40 lawmakers had signed a resolution for Obasa's removal, allegedly backed by Sanwo-Olu, with plans to replace him with Mojisola Meranda. However, President Tinubu reportedly intervened, reintegrating Obasa, which was seen as a warning shot to Sanwo-Olu.
Losing Influence
The ripples of the friction were seen during the APC local government primaries ahead of the July 12, 2025 council elections. Unlike in previous years, Sanwo-Olu had little say in selecting chairmanship candidates across Lagos' 57 LGAs and LCDAs. This marked a departure from tradition and a sign of Sanwo-Olu's diminishing influence within the party.
Isolation and Controversy
Sanwo-Olu's absence from the APC National Policy and Performance Review Summit in Abuja, where Tinubu was formally endorsed for a second term, was seen as a sign of his isolation. Meanwhile, the controversy surrounding Aisha Achimugu, a businesswoman facing EFCC investigations over alleged financial misconduct, has added fuel to the tension, with insiders suggesting that rivals within Lagos APC are exploiting the scandal to further erode Sanwo-Olu's credibility.
Tinubu's Cycle of Loyalty
Observers note a pattern in Tinubu's political career: proteges who rise through his influence eventually fall out of favor when they begin asserting independence. This pattern can be observed in the cases of former governors Babatunde Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode, who faced similar treatment. Now, it appears Sanwo-Olu is walking the same path, with diminishing influence and increasing marginalisation.
Critics argue that this cycle of loyalty-based politics has disrupted governance in Lagos, with critical projects being discarded to make room for new political interests.
"The biggest losers are Lagosians who are caught in this revolving door of unfinished development" echoes a political analyst.
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- The ongoing tension between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State, members of the same party (APC), has led to speculations about a potential breakdown in their alliance, causing apprehensions ahead of the 2027 election in Nigeria.
- During President Tinubu's recent visit to Lagos, he reportedly bypassed a handshake with Governor Sanwo-Olu, greeting the deputy governor instead, raising questions about the state of their relationship.
- The president's chilly demeanor towards Governor Sanwo-Olu at the Murtala Muhammed Airport and the latter's absence at several key events, such as the 50th anniversary of ECOWAS, have fueled speculation about the topic and raised eyebrows among observers.
- The alleged attempt by Governor Sanwo-Olu to oust the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, and the reported intervention by President Tinubu, reintegrating Obasa, has been seen as a possible reason for the friction between the two leaders.
- During the APC local government primaries ahead of the 2025 council elections, Governor Sanwo-Olu had little say in selecting chairmanship candidates across Lagos' 57 LGAs and LCDAs, which marked a departure from tradition and a sign of Sanwo-Olu's diminishing influence within the party.
- The controversy surrounding Aisha Achimugu, a businesswoman facing EFCC investigations over alleged financial misconduct, has added fuel to the tension, with insiders suggesting that rivals within Lagos APC are exploiting the scandal to further erode Sanwo-Olu's credibility.
- Observers note a pattern in Tinubu's political career, where proteges who rise through his influence eventually fall out of favor when they begin asserting independence, as seen in the cases of former governors Babatunde Fashola and Akinwunmi Ambode.
- Critics argue that this cycle of loyalty-based politics has led to disruptions in governance in Lagos, with critical projects being discarded to make room for new political interests, ultimately disadvantaging Lagosians.
