Decline in the Count of Afghan Males Residing in Germany
In early 2025, a significant change in Germany's asylum policy led to a decrease in the protection rate for Afghan men seeking asylum, dropping from 74 percent in 2024 to 52 percent.
The shift, primarily driven by a political and policy adjustment by the German government, is connected to a move away from humanitarian migration programs and efforts to curb irregular and illegal migration. Concerns about exceeding societal integration capacity are cited as the main reasons for this change.
Key factors contributing to this shift include the phasing out of admission programs for Afghans, with the government assessing alternatives given the migration volume and integration challenges. It's important to note that the government has not explicitly stated policy targets by nationality, but has expressed concerns about the overall scale of humanitarian migration and irregular migration.
Since 2021, Germany admitted around 36,500 vulnerable Afghans through targeted pathways. However, new admissions have become more limited. This change in policy has been influenced by the shift in public and political sentiment since the 2015 migrant crisis, with increased influence of right-wing parties pushing for stricter migration controls.
Legal challenges have arisen from Afghans affected by the suspension of admissions, emphasizing the need for proof of ongoing risk before halting protections.
While the protection rate for Afghan men decreased, there was a sharp increase in asylum applications and approvals for Afghan women in 2025, largely due to EU court rulings recognizing gender-based persecution under Taliban rule.
Germany is also working on designations of "safe countries of origin" and faster deportation processes for rejected applicants, aiming to reduce illegal migration. Overall asylum applications in Germany decreased in early 2025 compared to previous years, reflecting a broader tightening of asylum policies and shifts in migration flows within Europe.
The drastic decrease in Afghan men’s protection rate reflects Germany’s strategic policy decision to manage migration volume and integrate capacity rather than changes in individual asylum claims’ merits, combined with evolving legal and political frameworks.
According to Clara Bünger, the interior policy spokeswoman for the Left in the Bundestag, there are "numerous quality defects in the BAMF and intolerable and blanket rejections." Bünger has stated that the federal government has acknowledged the catastrophic humanitarian and human rights situation in Afghanistan, but has not provided a clear explanation for the change in decision-making practice at the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
Bünger believes that political pressure for a tougher approach to Afghan refugees may be a factor in the change in decision-making practice at BAMF. The lowest protection rate for Afghan men so far was reached in June 2025, at only 33.7%.
Approximately 11,200 Afghan nationals subject to deportation live in Germany, with around 9,700 being male, 1,450 being female, and around 1,500 being minors. Most deportees live in Bavaria, with around 1,800 living there.
The federal government has regular technical-level contacts with representatives of the de facto government in Afghanistan, but has not recognized them.
Sources:
[1] New Osnabrücker Zeitung [2] EU Court Rulings [3] German Government Announcements [4] German Federal Statistical Office [5] United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
- The reduction in protection rate for Afghan men seeking asylum in Germany is not solely influenced by changes in individual asylum claims' merits, but also by policy-and-legislation adjustments and political shifts, particularly a move away from humanitarian migration programs and efforts to limit irregular migration.
- The German government, in its policy-and-legislation creation process, has expressed concerns about societal integration capacity, which has led to the phasing out of admission programs for Afghans and the establishment of safer countries of origin designations and faster deportation processes for rejected applicants, as part of a broader strategy to manage migration volume and integrate capacity.
