A Shift in European Border Crossings
Decline in Migrant Arrivals in Europe Persists, Yet Possible Shifts Remain Likely
New trends in European Union (EU) migrations along major routes in 2025, as per Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, suggest a notable decrease in unauthorized border crossings into the EU. This significant drop varies by route.
For instance, the first quarter of 2025 witnessed a staggering 64% decrease on the Western Balkan route and a 59% decrease on the Central Mediterranean route leading to Italy.
A Drop Along the Western Balkans Route
The most dramatic decreases have been seen on the Western Balkans route, with a 56% reduction in unauthorized crossings. This downward trend is a continuation from previous years, largely due to increased cooperation between the EU and Western Balkan countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina. Frontex's enhanced operational presence at borders and crossing points has been instrumental in this improvement [1][2].
Other Notable Decreases
Other significant declines are observed on the Western African route (-35%) and the Eastern Mediterranean route (-30%) [2][4]. Migration across the Belarus route into Poland and the Baltic states also decreased by 7% to around 5,062 crossings [2][4].
Increasing Pressure on Central Mediterranean and Channel Routes
In contrast, there's been a slight 7% increase in unauthorized crossings along the central Mediterranean route toward Italy, signaling increasing pressure on that corridor [2][4]. Additionally, crossings via the English Channel towards the UK rose by 17%, with smuggling networks adapting by using simultaneous departures to improve success rates [2][4].
Emerging Challenges
Frontex also flags emerging migration and security challenges, including migrants using fake documents and smaller airports to bypass air border controls, as well as criminal groups exploiting new smuggling routes linked to conflicts and instability in Africa [5].
In conclusion, while overall migration pressure on EU borders is down notably in 2025, the situation varies significantly across different routes, with the Western Balkans showing a strong positive trend due to enhanced cooperation, while the central Mediterranean and Channel routes face increasing challenges [1][2][4][5].
- The decrease in migration along the Western Balkans route, as well as the Western African and Eastern Mediterranean routes, has been influenced by increased cooperation between the EU and these countries, as well as Frontex's enhanced operational presence.
- While overall migration pressure on EU borders is down in 2025, there's been a slight increase in unauthorized crossings along the central Mediterranean route toward Italy, signaling increasing pressure on that corridor, and crossings via the English Channel towards the UK have risen by 17%, with smuggling networks adapting to improve success rates.
