Decline in Afghan Male Population in Germany Observed
In early 2025, a dramatic decrease was observed in the protection rate for male Afghans seeking asylum in Germany. The approval rate fell from 74% in 2024 to 52% in the opening months of 2025[1]. This shift is primarily due to changes in German asylum policy and public sentiment.
Key factors contributing to this decline include political and policy changes, public and political pressure, a hardened stance by the Interior Ministry, a shift towards designating "safe countries of origin", and a reduction in asylum applications.
The German government has begun phasing out humanitarian admission programs for Afghans, citing integration capacity concerns[1]. Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, Germany admitted many vulnerable Afghans, but now programs are being curtailed. The rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which gained historic electoral success by capitalizing on anti-migrant sentiment, has influenced a harder stance on asylum seekers[1].
Officials, including Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, aim to tighten asylum processes and facilitate quicker deportations[2]. Germany is also modifying how it designates safe countries, aiming to accelerate rejection and deportation of asylum seekers from such countries[2].
The number of male Afghans receiving protection in Germany in the first half of 2025 was 38.6%, a significant drop from the 95.7% protection rate in the same period the previous year[1]. Around 11,200 Afghan citizens subject to deportation live in Germany, with approximately 9,700 being male, 1,450 female, and around 1,500 minors[1][4]. Most of those subject to deportation live in Bavaria, numbering around 1,800[1].
Clara Bünger, the interior policy spokeswoman for the Left in the Bundestag, finds this drop in protection rates alarming. She claims the high cancellation rate by the courts indicates clear defects in the decision-making practice at BAMF[3]. Bünger urges an urgent change in the rejection practice towards asylum seekers from Afghanistan, as she believes it should not be left to the administrative courts[3].
The humanitarian and human rights situation in Afghanistan is reported to be catastrophic and has deteriorated further in the affected period. The federal government has regular technical-level contacts with representatives of the de facto government in Afghanistan, but does not recognize them[5].
Bünger suggests that political pressure for a tougher approach to Afghan refugees may be evident in the change in decision-making practice at BAMF. She states that the federal government has not provided a clear explanation for the change in decision-making practice at the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)[3].
The lowest point so far in the protection rate for male Afghans was reached in June 2025, at only 33.7%[1]. Bünger identifies numerous quality defects in the BAMF and intolerable and blanket rejections[3]. She calls for an immediate review and correction of the decision-making processes at BAMF to ensure fair and humane treatment for asylum seekers.
The decline in the protection rate for male Afghans in Germany can be attributed to changes in policy-and-legislation and politics, given the shift towards hardened stances and the curtailing of humanitarian admission programs. Clara Bünger, the interior policy spokeswoman for the Left in the Bundestag, finds the dramatic drop in protection rates concerning, as it may reflect a troubling influence of political pressure on the decision-making practice at the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
General news outlets have reported on key factors contributing to this decline, including political and policy changes, public and political pressure, the Interior Ministry's hardened stance, designating "safe countries of origin," and a reduction in asylum applications, all of which have influenced German asylum policy.
