Decline Forecasted: Saxony-Anhalt's Population Is Waning
Saxony-Anhalt Struggles with Persistent Population Decline
A population decline below 1% since 2011, except for a minor upsurge in 2015, has persisted in Saxony-Anhalt, according to figures released by the State Statistical Office. The recently presented 8th regionalized population forecast predicts a continued decrease in the state's population over the coming years.
By 2040, the number of inhabitants in Saxony-Anhalt will decrease by 15.0% from 2,150,239 to 1,828,040, as compared to December 31, 2022. All independent cities and districts will experience varying degrees of population loss. While the independent city of Dessau-Roßlau (-10.1%) and the state capital of Magdeburg (-9.6%) are expected to bear the smallest decreases, the Burgenlandkreis faces a projected decline of 20.5%.
The slowing population decline in independent cities on average will contribute to an increase in the share of the three major centers in Saxony-Anhalt's overall population, which is predicted to increase from 25.4% in 2022 to 26.1% by 2040.
The current age structure is a crucial factor in the varying demographic trends across Saxony-Anhalt's regions. Magdeburg and Halle (Saale), the two major cities, already have the lowest averages ages of 45.2 and 44.7 years, respectively, in 2022. By 2040, the average age is expected to increase in Magdeburg to 47.1 years and in Halle (Saale) to 46.0 years, both of which will remain significantly below the state average.
Overall, Saxony-Anhalt will continue to witness an aging population. The average age will climb from the current 48.1 years to 49.9 years. The number of people under 20 will decrease by 21.8% to 281,100, while the number of people aged 20 to 66 will decrease by 21.1% to 985,900. In contrast, the number of people aged 67 and above will rise by 4.8% to 561,100, leading to an increase in the old-age dependency ratio from 42.9 to 56.9, while the youth dependency ratio will decrease from 28.8 to 28.5.
By 2040, there will be 100 more individuals aged 20 to under 67 than 85 individuals aged young and old who may not be available for the workforce. In contrast, in 2022, there were still 28 individuals under 20 and 42 individuals aged 67 and above.
The Enrichment Data suggests that Saxony-Anhalt, like much of eastern Germany, has encountered significant demographic challenges since reunification, including population decline due to aging, low birth rates, and out-migration, particularly among the young. The state is projected to continue losing an additional 15-25% of its population by 2040, suffering economic and social strains due to the shrinking workforce and the growing burden on local budgets and public services. Many municipalities have taken initiatives to combat the decline through investments in education, digitalization, mobility, and family-friendly measures, but reversing the demographic downturn remains uncertain in the short to medium term.
Other regions within Saxony-Anhalt might need to address the ongoing population decline by implementing policy-and-legislation related to education, digitalization, mobility, and family-friendly measures, similar to those currently employed by many municipalities in the state, to mitigate further economic and social strains caused by the shrinking workforce and the growing burden on local budgets and public services. In the realm of politics and general news, Saxony-Anhalt's persistent struggle with a declining population and its associated challenges is a matter of concern that demands continued attention and concerted efforts from both the state and federal governments.
