Debunking Misconceptions: Camouflaged Reduction – Doug Ford Isn't Expanding Government but Rather Hiding Its Shrinkage
In a departure from the commonly perceived notion, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is not a big-spender when it comes to politics. His budgets, while appearing sizeable in headlines, are gradually diminishing significantly portions of the public sector when contextualized correctly.
Toronto-based human rights organization Maytree’s director of systems change, Alexi White, recently asserted on the "This Matters" podcast that Ford's spending patterns are far from drastic, as many initially envisioned seven years ago.
Precisely, Ford's expenditure is reportedly 50% higher than the last Liberal government's 2018 budget when delving deeper into the numbers. The discrepancy, however, lies in the neglect of factors such as inflation and population growth, which have seen steep increases in recent years.
Inflation substantially reduces the real value of each dollar spent, while population growth intensifies the demand for government services. If the spending growth does not outpace these factors, the availability and quality of services can suffer substantially.
Maytree's examination of the Ford government's program spending from its first budget in 2018-19 to what is proposed for 2025-26, adjusted for inflation and population growth, reveals an increase of only 5% over seven years. This growth is not uniform, with sectors like healthcare, justice, and "other programs" receiving real per capita spending growth. On the other hand, sectors such as children and social services, K-12 education, and post-secondary education have endured effective cuts.
The severest impacts of these cuts have been observed in the children and social services sector, where real per capita spending has declined by 11%. Inflation-adjusted Ontario Works rates now stand over $200 less than what they were when the Harris government left office in 1995, inadvertently thrusting more Ontarians into homelessness.
The Ford government's approach to starving social services accomplishes the same result as axe-wielding methods but with minimal negative publicity.
The perplexing conundrum arises when one considers the accumulation of debt. The anomaly lies in Ontario having a revenue issue, rather than an excessive spending one. The Ford government's gradual tax and fee reductions now cost the treasury over $7.7 billion annually. According to the 2025 budget, inflation-adjusted revenues, excluding federal transfers, are predicted to drop by another 2.6% by 2027-28.
An analysis by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario reveals that Ontario had the lowest per capita revenue and per capita spending among all provinces in 2022. With revenues lagging by a full 24.2% behind the national average, Ontario stands starkly different from other provinces.
In light of these facts, one may never encounter a headline reading "Ontario again tables smallest per capita budget in Canada" on budget day.
The Ford government has astutely projected an image of a generous spending administration dedicated to safeguarding public services. By gradually reducing revenues each year, they maintain a manageable annual deficit with little impact on Ontario's debt-to-GDP ratio. This deficit is subsequently spun as evidence that Ford is committed to protecting public programs instead of balancing the budget through cuts.
Without proper context, this narrative prevails and media coverage often conceals rather than reveals the truth: Doug Ford is not a big-spender in the typical sense. He is presiding over a slow and intentional starvation of many public services.
- The media often labels Ontario Premier Doug Ford as a big-spender in politics, but his budgets, when contextualized correctly, show a significant reduction in portions of the public sector.
- Despite his reputation, Ford's expenditure is reportedly 50% higher than the last Liberal government's 2018 budget when accounting for factors like inflation and population growth.
- Toronto-based human rights organization Maytree's examination reveals that the Ford government's program spending over seven years has only increased by 5% when adjusted for inflation and population growth.
- However, this increase is not uniform, with sectors like healthcare and justice receiving real per capita spending growth, while sectors such as children and social services, K-12 education, and post-secondary education have endured effective cuts.
- In the children and social services sector, real per capita spending has declined by 11%, leading to lower Ontario Works rates and an increase in homelessness.
- The Ford government's approach to starving social services is minimally controversial due to its gradual nature, when compared to axe-wielding methods.
- In reality, Ontario is facing a revenue issue, not an excessive spending one, as the Ford government's gradual tax and fee reductions now cost the treasury over $7.7 billion annually, with inflation-adjusted revenues expected to drop further by 2027-28.
