Debris from Russia Continues to Descend Post-Attack in Poland
The recent drone incursion by Russia into Polish airspace, on September 9, marked a significant escalation in tensions between NATO and Russia. This incident, the first time NATO has engaged the Russian military since the all-out war of aggression against Ukraine began in 2022, has prompted a swift response from the alliance.
The United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states continue to enable transfers between Alabuga's partners and Iranian suppliers, creating gaps in the enforcement of existing sanctions. This has raised concerns that a feeble alliance response could become a perilous new normal, as the Baltic states have been warning all summer.
In response, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, a move designed for consultations when sovereignty and security are threatened. This was followed by a meeting of the National Security Council, including both President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
The Kremlin's drone incursions are calculated moves aimed at checking NATO's resolve and fostering division. However, the West has demonstrated its ability to seize illicit weapons shipments at sea, including UK interceptions of vessels carrying Iranian missiles.
The danger now is that a feeble alliance response could become a perilous new normal. To counter this, a genuine shift in paradigm is needed, with NATO moving beyond interception towards calibrated offense. This includes hard power and hybrid tools, cyber disruption, and financial pressure.
NATO needs a graduated response ladder that makes every airspace violation costly for Moscow. Ambassador Kurt Volker has proposed extending the coverage of NATO air defense batteries to bring down Russian drones and missiles over Western Ukraine.
NATO states including Germany and Poland have proposed strengthening air defense and drone interception systems near western Ukraine. Germany has delivered Patriot missile launchers and plans to provide long-range drones, while Poland has actively engaged NATO jets to shoot down Russian drones, prompting NATO consultations.
Cyber operations could be effective in deterring Russia, with a framework for action already existing in the 2024 Washington Summit Declaration. An attestation regime similar to the one built for Russian oil exports could be used to monitor vessels and operators for drone components. Shipping of drone components should be controlled by blacklisting the components most often recovered from drone wreckage and tracing serial numbers and gray-market resellers.
Ambassador Maciej Filip Bukowski, the Head of the Energy and Resilience Program at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation in Warsaw and a non-resident fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), has suggested that the West should impose more serious sanctions to strike at the backbone of Russia's drone production in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone.
The UK defense secretary has suggested British units may be deployed to Poland, and others should do likewise to ensure the message is heard. The response to the drone incursion has shown that NATO is prepared to defend its member states, and a united response could deter further provocations from Russia.
The response to the drone incursion has highlighted the need for a common European air defense shield, as also urged by Ukraine's president. Implementation may heighten tensions with Russia, which may view enhanced NATO drone defenses near Ukraine as provocative, potentially escalating the conflict and further straining NATO-Russia relations. However, the priority remains the security and sovereignty of NATO member states.
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