Deadly floods in Gulf countries worsened by climate change and artificial rainmaking practices
In a series of dramatic events, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar have been hit by severe flooding, causing widespread damage and loss of life. The torrential rainfall, which is unusual for the typically arid region, has been linked to climate change and inadequate infrastructure.
### Unusual Rainfall Events and Climate Change
Heavy rainfall, while infrequent in the Middle East, can be extreme when it occurs. Climate change has been linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of such high-precipitation events in regions that historically have minimal rainfall. This phenomenon has led to flash floods and urban flooding due to inadequate drainage infrastructure.
### Urbanization and Flood Risks
Rapid urban development, with its accompanying inadequate drainage and impervious surfaces, has exacerbated flood risks. Poor land-use planning and insufficient flood risk management have increased the susceptibility to water accumulation during heavy rains.
### Geographical and Sea-Level Influences
The Gulf countries, bordering semi-enclosed bodies of water like the Arabian Gulf, are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Changes in sea surface temperatures and sea levels, influenced by global warming, interact with precipitation patterns, potentially worsening flood impacts at coastal and low-lying areas through storm surges and higher baseline water levels.
### Impact of Climate Change
Climate change has been identified as a key driver of extreme weather events. It amplifies the hydrological cycle, leading to more frequent and severe storms and heavy rainfall episodes worldwide. This has been observed in the Arabian Peninsula, leading to unusual monsoon-like rain surges or tropical systems impacting the Gulf region.
The deserts and semi-desert regions in the Gulf are not naturally equipped for heavy rainfall. Intense downpours result in rapid surface runoff and flash floods, which are worsened by soil and ground conditions altered by warming. Rising sea levels, a direct result of climate change, also raise coastal waters and can exacerbate flooding during heavy rains or storm surges.
### Case in Point: UAE's Al Ain
In Al Ain, an Emirati oasis city on the border with Oman, 254mm of rain was recorded in less than 24 hours, a record since 1949. This unprecedented rainfall led to collapsed roads, homes, and vehicles submerged in floodwater, and the postponement of an Asian Champions League match between Al Ain (UAE) and Al-Hilal (Saudi Arabia).
### The Role of Cloud Seeding
The UAE has been carrying out cloud seeding since 2002, a weather modification procedure to induce rainfall, to deal with water security issues. However, some researchers, like Justin Dargin of Oxford University, have suggested that cloud seeding could potentially have contributed to the severity of the recent flooding in the UAE.
### Loss of Life and Disruption
The death toll from the severe flooding has risen to almost 20, with an Emirati man in his 70s dying after his vehicle was caught in the flooding in Ras al-Khaimah. The storms also hit Bahrain and parts of Qatar, causing significant disruption. Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest for international traffic, experienced significant disruption due to the flooding, with several flights cancelled or delayed.
### The Need for Climate Resilience
These events underscore the need for enhanced flood risk management, infrastructure adaptation, and regional climate resilience planning to address future flooding threats linked to a changing climate. Climate change acts as a critical multiplier, increasing the frequency and severity of floods in this otherwise dry region. As such, it is crucial to implement measures to improve water drainage and routing infrastructure, advance warning systems for residents, and address urbanization issues to mitigate the impact of future extreme weather events.
- The Middle East's unexpected torrential rainfall, while not common, can be exceptionally intense, leading to flash and urban flooding due to insufficient drainage infrastructure.
- Climate change has been identified as a major factor in the increase of high-precipitation events, particularly in arid regions like the Middle East, where infrastructure is less equipped to handle such weather.
- Rapid urban development in Gulf countries, often with inadequate drainage and impervious surfaces, has heightened flood risks by increasing water accumulation during heavy rains.
- Ocean countries along semi-enclosed bodies of water, such as the Arabian Gulf, are more vulnerable to flooding due to combined effects of climate change on sea surface temperatures, sea levels, precipitation patterns, and urbanization factors.
- Scientific analysis has shown that climate change serves as a primary driver of extreme weather events, leading to an amplification of the hydrological cycle and causing more frequent and severe storms like the recent monsoon-like rain surges in the Arabian Peninsula.
- Events such as the UAE's extreme rainfall in Al Ain, resulting in collapsed infrastructure, submerged vehicles, and delayed sporting events, have highlighted the urgent need for climate resilience through enhanced flood management, infrastructure adaptation, and regional planning in response to evolving climate threats.
