The Saga of US-China Tourism: A Tale of Ebb and Flow
Strained Relations Between USA and China Negatively Impact Tourism Sector - Damaged Reputations and Tourism Decline for US and China
In the global travel scene, the COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical events have dealt China a harder blow than the USA. This year, major German airports, Frankfurt and Munich, have reported an upsurge in passenger traffic on US routes, while witnessing a decline in travelers to China. Notably, the United States has topped China in global visitor numbers since 2019.
Industry Predicts Challenges for US Tourism Amidst Trump's Reign
Munich Airport saw nearly 1.2 million passengers on US flights from January to May, marking a 37,000-passenger increase compared to the previous year. Likewise, Frankfurt Airport recorded a rise of 7,600 passengers to 944,300 in the first four months (excluding May). However, these figures don't reveal whether the flights primarily carried US citizens or Europeans, nor do they distinguish between departing and arriving passengers.
The tourism sector anticipates that Trump's second term will cast a shadow over US tourism. Based on estimates by the World Tourism Organization (WTTC) and consulting firm Oxford Economics, the US could stand to lose over $12 billion in revenue this year due to fewer foreign visitors [6]. The German news magazine "Der Spiegel" dedicated its latest cover story to the travel turmoil generated by Trump.
China's Tourism: Pandemic and Conflict Take a Toll
Passenger numbers on flights to and from Munich and Frankfurt have dwindled this year, dropping 1,300 to nearly 203,000 in Munich during the first five months and 27,000 to 180,300 in Frankfurt during the first four months compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, a long-term comparison between 2019 and 2024 reveals reduced passenger numbers to and from China, coupled with increased traffic on US routes.
Dennis Utzerath, a tourism expert at international consulting firm BCG in Cologne, attributes China's dwindling appeal to significantly altered accessibility during the pandemic. The reduced flight offerings and the burden of expensive detours for European airlines to bypass Russian airspace compared to Chinese airlines have made it challenging for them to compete effectively [1].
Surprising Signs of Renewed Interest in Chinese Tourism
Holger Baldus, security manager at Munich-based tour operator Studiosus, notes that the lower passenger numbers from Germany to China do not accurately reflect the actual demand for Chinese tourism in the region. The limited availability of seats is the primary reason for the decline in passengers, not a lack of interest. Despite the scarcity of seats, both Studiosus and Germany's largest tour operator, TUI, report a rekindling of interest in China, albeit from a smaller initial base [6].
The Pandemic's Aftermath: A complicated Dance
While China grapples with the lingering effects of the pandemic and geopolitical challenges, the USA is witnessing a relatively smoother recovery. Official figures show that China welcomed approximately 64.9 million foreigners in 2024, a significant drop from the 96.6 million recorded in 2019, a decrease of about a third. In contrast, the USA welcomed 72.3 million visitors in the past year, more than in China despite the pandemic [1].
image caption: The global travel scene is witnessing a shift in favor of the USA over China, as shown by post-pandemic visitor numbers [2].
Business consultant Utzerath attributes China's declining popularity, in part, to its tarnished image in the Western world. The impact of coverage on issues like state surveillance, stringent COVID-19 lockdowns, environmental pollution, or threats against Taiwan is difficult to quantify [1].
On the flip side, the current favorable dollar exchange rate and less controversial political climate may encourage travel to the USA, even as global perceptions and geopolitical factors play a role in tourist destination choices [2][5].
Seeking the Return of Former Glory: China's Visa Policy Overhaul and Domestic Tourism Push
In an attempt to lure back international tourists, China has easied its visa policy for foreign visitors, enabling Germans, among others, to visit the country without a visa for business or tourism purposes, and stay for up to 30 days [3]. The country has also simplified the use of its digital payment system by translating apps and accepting foreign credit cards. In the first quarter of this year, officials reported around 17.4 million foreign arrivals, marking a year-on-year increase of over a third [3].
Peking aims to stimulate not only international tourism but also domestic consumption as a means to bolster its economy. New initiatives, such as special train trips for seniors equipped with on-board medical care and assistance, are designed to boost domestic tourism and encourage consumption [3].
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- The tourism policy of EC countries may face challenges as Trump's political stance could deter foreign visitors from the US, potentially impacting revenue, as predicted by the World Tourism Organization (WTTC) and consulting firm Oxford Economics.
- Despite a decrease in travelers to China due to the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical events, and altered accessibility, there are signs of renewed interest in Chinese tourism, as reported by tour operators Studiosus and TUI, suggesting that the decreased passenger numbers might not accurately reflect the actual demand for Chinese tourism.
