Current Status of U.S. Grain Exports
============================================================
Through July 2025, U.S. export sales and shipments of grain show mixed performance amid the U.S. dollar index uptrend.
Corn:
Corn export sales remain strong despite some weekly dips, supported by steady demand from key markets such as Japan, Mexico, and Guatemala. The USDA reports robust corn exports with shipments continuing well, though net sales reductions have been recorded recently but at marketing-year lows, indicating overall resilience. USDA projects a record corn crop production but slightly lower ending stocks, reflecting solid export activity through July/August.
Wheat:
U.S. wheat exports are performing above average with net sales for 2025/26 raised to a record 2.9 billion bushels reflecting competitiveness despite the stronger dollar. Weekly wheat sales are up 14% over the prior four-week average, although weekly shipments saw some recent declines. Wheat export strength is driven by demand from nations like South Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines, offsetting lower domestic use.
Soybeans:
Soybean export sales have slowed markedly, due largely to a lack of Chinese purchases which traditionally dominate U.S. soybean exports. The USDA has reduced export projections by 40 million bushels for soybeans, with ending stocks tightening but export pace posing a risk to prices. This slowdown contrasts with corn and wheat performance and reflects competitiveness challenges amid currency and global supply factors.
The U.S. dollar index uptrend generally pressures export competitiveness by making U.S. grain pricier on the international market. However, strong corn and wheat export sales demonstrate continued demand and market resilience, while soybeans face more export headwinds.
For the week ending Thursday, July 31, US corn export shipments were 1.229 million metric tons, net sales were 170,400 metric tons, and total sales were 2.78 billion bushels. US soybean export shipments were 689,500 metric tons, with net sales of 467,800 metric tons. Shipments of US wheat for the same week were 667,700 metric tons.
Notably, China has no outstanding sales of US wheat again this week. The USDA's latest guess for total US corn marketing year export shipments for 2024-2025 has been increased to 2.75 billion bushels from the previous month's 2.65 billion bushels. The pace projection of total marketing year export shipments of US soybeans for 2024-2025 is 1.853 bb, up 13% from 2023-2024's reported shipments.
The pace projection of total marketing year export shipments of US wheat for 2024-2025 is 894 million metric tons, up 15% from 2023-2024's reported shipments. The 2025-2026 marketing year export shipments of US wheat are 143 million metric tons, and the 2025-2026 marketing year export shipments of US corn are not on the books for China as of the latest report.
Darin Newsom did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in the article. All information and data in the article are solely for informational purposes. The US reportedly shipped 681 million metric tons during 2023-2024. It is still early in the 2025-2026 marketing year, meaning week-to-week changes can be volatile.
Footnotes:
- USDA Weekly Export Sales Report
- USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
- USDA Crop Production Report
- USDA Grain Stocks Report
- USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
- Sports enthusiasts could see US grain exports, particularly corn and wheat, impact their favorite athlete's diets, as robust export sales are being reported for these products and USDA projects a record corn crop production.
- Despite slower soybean export sales due to a lack of Chinese purchases, the eagerly anticipated 2025-2026 marketing year for US corn and wheat exports still holds promising figures, bolstering demand for American-grown grains in various sports nutritional supplements.
