Current News: AfD Achieves 26% - Union Dips to Laschet's Level
Germany is currently navigating a politically fragmented environment and economic challenges, as revealed by recent polls and economic data. The German economy shrank slightly by -0.1% in Q2 2025, following a mild growth of +0.3% in Q1, due to global trade tensions, particularly the US tariff policies[3]. This economic uncertainty contributes to public economic pessimism.
In the February 2025 federal election, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc emerged as the largest party with 28.5% of the vote, a decrease compared to Angela Merkel's 41.5% in 2013[1]. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its vote share to 20.8%, reaching a historic high and becoming the second-largest party[1]. The socialist Left party revived significantly to around 9%, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance narrowly failed to enter the Bundestag[1].
The incumbent Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces a loss of majority, leading to a deliberately lost confidence vote to trigger early elections, indicating fragile leadership and low parliamentary support[1]. Detailed approval ratings are not explicitly given but are inferred to be weak due to the coalition collapse and election results.
Support for Chancellor Merz has fallen to a record low, with 29% satisfied and 67% dissatisfied[4]. Green supporters also have a high level of dissatisfaction with Chancellor Merz (77%), while AfD supporters are the most critical (95% dissatisfied)[4]. The Union, which includes the CDU/CSU, has lost support, dropping a point to 24%[4], its lowest value since the 2021 federal election.
The SPD and Greens remain at 13% each[4]. Half of the federal citizens do not trust any party to tackle the current challenges[4]. The share of non-voters and undecided has increased to 25 percent[4]. The Left loses one point and stands at 11 percent[4].
In terms of party support, the CDU/CSU remains the largest party at around 28.5%, while the AfD surges to 20.8%[1][2]. The SPD struggles following the collapse of the previous "Ampel" coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) formed in 2021, which was plagued by internal conflicts and external crises, including the Ukraine war and economic recession in 2023[2].
Regarding the coalition situation, the previous Ampel coalition collapsed in 2024, and the CDU is poised to lead the new government[1][2]. The AfD has reached its highest measured value yet at 26 percent in the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer[4].
Half of the respondents anticipate a deterioration in the economic situation (62%), the highest pessimism level of the year[4]. However, a narrow majority of 52% believe the CDU/CSU and SPD grand coalition will last until 2029, while 43% expect it to end prematurely[4]. Trust in the grand coalition's survival is strongest among CDU/CSU supporters (81%), SPD supporters (64%), and Green supporters (67%)[4].
In summary, Germany's political landscape in 2025 is marked by economic pessimism, shifting party support, and mixed approval ratings for the chancellor. The country faces economic challenges, a politically fragmented environment, and uncertainty ahead for its stability and policy direction.
| Aspect | Status (2025) | |---------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | Economic outlook | Slight GDP contraction; economic pessimism due to trade conflicts and sluggish growth[3] | | Chancellor approval | Low, with coalition collapse and early elections triggered by lost confidence vote[1] | | Party support | CDU/CSU largest at ~28.5%; AfD surges to 20.8%; Left party rebounds near 9%; others fragmented[1][2] | | Coalition situation | Previous Ampel (SPD-Greens-FDP) coalition collapsed in 2024; CDU poised to lead new government[1][2] | | Public opinion | Economic pessimism; weak approval ratings for Chancellor Merz; half of respondents do not trust any party[4] | | Coalition survival | 52% believe the CDU/CSU and SPD grand coalition will last until 2029; 43% expect it to end prematurely[4] |
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