Critical Perspective:

In the final stretch of the 2025 Canadian general election, what was once a gimme for the Conservatives has transformed into a genuine nail-biter, with Mark Carney's Liberals now holding a slim but formidable lead. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone predicting this turning of tides back in January, when mere 12% of Canadians thought the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau deserved another term. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives enjoyed a whopping 27-point lead over the Liberals in our Abacus Data tracking for the website. The prevailing mood was one of discontent, with affordable living, housing woes, and gridlocked public services at the forefront of people's minds.

Fast-forward to today, and the political landscape has drastically shifted. Trudeau's departure set the Liberals back, no doubt. But fate might just have smirked at them, for the timing couldn't have been more perfect. Enter Mark Carney, former central banker and relative unknown to many Canadians, who walked into the fray with credibility bolstered by his impressive résumé. And as the world grew more uncertain, his reputation for competence and calm rose dramatically, with Carney's personal favorables soaring from 19% to an impressive 46%, proving a meteoric rise with zero political experience to show for it.

This, however, doesn't spell a coronation. The path to Carney's Liberals has been as much about Poilievre's strategic limitations as it has been about the former prime minister's emergence. For much of 2023 and most of 2024, the Conservatives successfully stoked frustration, especially among younger voters, over the economy, border issues, and government. But the arrival of ex-U.S. President Donald Trump on the scene muddied the waters. Now, around one-quarter of Conservative supporters still hold a soft spot for the American president, making a complete break from Trump politically risky.

Consequently, this campaign finds itself split into two distinct narratives. One centers around affordability and change—the Conservatives own turf. The other revolves around stability and leadership in a tumultuous world— clear advantages for the Liberals. Around 56% of Canadians, at one point, identified "which party is best able to deal with Donald Trump's threats to Canada" as the most crucial question for the election. As time wears on, however, there's been a slight shift, with more and more voters returning to the "time for a change" narrative. But even among this group, nearly a quarter still support the Liberals, evidence that Carney has managed to separate himself from the Trudeau years, offering a "new Liberal" option that appeals to those seeking change yet seeking reassurance.

Anticipate high voter turnout, with our current projections pointing to 71%, significantly higher than the last few federal elections. This strong turnout reflects the heightened stakes people feel nationwide. Regionally, the Liberals have strong backing in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces. Older voters increasingly lean toward the Liberals, while younger voters, initially Conservative-leaning, have migrated towards the Liberals and the New Democratic Party (NDP) as well.

So where does this leave Poilievre and the Conservatives? Their vote share remains competitive—hovering around 37% nationally—and there's still strong enthusiasm for change among over half the electorate. But with days ticking down, it's no longer enough to simply hammer home the narrative of frustration with the status quo; they must now fight to refocus attention on domestic renewal while keeping Trump's presence at bay. Quite the challenge, but the stakes couldn't be higher.

Ultimately, this election serves as a lesson on just how swiftly public opinion can change and how context can rewrite entire campaigns. It's proof that sometimes, winning or losing is less about the better argument and more about which argument the voters choose to care about most. David Coletto is Founder and CEO of polling firm Abacus Data, whose numbers have shaped this narrative.

[1] The impact of Carney’s leadership on stock markets and investor sentiment can be attributed to his background as a former Bank of Canada governor and ex-Governor of the Bank of England. His economic expertise contributed to a positive outlook among market analysts regarding the election outcome.

[2] Opinion polls in late March 2025 showed the Liberals with a five-point lead over the Conservatives, with projections predicting a majority government for the Liberals by the time votes were cast on April 28, 2025.

[3] The Liberals' gains were largely due to the collapse of support for the NDP and a decline in the Bloc Québécois' vote share. The NDP was projected to perform at its worst-ever level, while the Bloc was expected to lose seats to the Liberals. Additionally, the Liberals made gains in crucial battlegrounds such as the Greater Toronto Area and parts of British Columbia. This suggests that Carney’s appeal helped solidify and expand Liberal support across diverse regions.

Canada's 2025 general election has undergone a remarkable transformation, with Mark Carney's Liberals leading the Conservatives narrowly, a turn of events that was improbable earlier in the year.
In the Abacus Data tracking for the website, the Conservatives had a formidable 27-point lead over the Liberals, a lead that has significantly dwindled.
The political discourse has now gravitated towards affordability and change, the Conservatives' traditional turf, as well as stability and leadership, the Liberals' advantages.
The media has been abuzz with discussions about which party can best deal with Donald Trump's threats to Canada, a question that has captured the interest of approximately 56% of Canadians.
The Liberal Party, under the leadership of Mark Carney, has received strong backing regionally, particularly in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.
The Conservatives, with a vote share of around 37% nationally, still face the challenge of refocusing attention on domestic renewal while keeping Trump's presence at bay, as the election date draws near.
The election serves as a compelling reminder that public opinion can change swiftly, and the outcome can be heavily influenced by the argument that resonates most with voters, rather than necessarily the better argument.