Kashmir: The Ticking Time Bomb between India and Pakistan
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Nations at serious risk of escalating hostilities: India and Pakistan inching closer to conflict - countries India and Pakistan escalating towards potential conflict
The Kashmir region, nestled in the stunning Western Himalayas, has long been a point of contention between two nuclear-armed nations, India and Pakistan. The latest flare-up, following a horrific terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, near the picturesque town of Pahalgam that left 26 people dead, mostly tourists, has raised alarming concerns about the potential for disaster. Both countries stand on the precipice of a disastrous confrontation with unforeseeable outcomes for the entire region.
Why is this conflict so risky?
The Kashmir region is bordered by three nuclear powers, and numerous extremist groups operate within the region. After a series of Indian air strikes, Pakistan has threatened retaliation, increasing fears that the situation could spin out of control and ultimately lead to war. Worryingly, China, who shares a disputed border with India in the eastern part of Kashmir, could also become embroiled in the conflict.
What are the origins of the conflict?
The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the colonial era. In 1947, the British Empire released India into independence, forming a predominantly Muslim country, Pakistan. The partition brought immense misery, with up to 15 million people either displaced or forced to flee. The enduring animosity from the partition continues today. Since gaining independence, the two nations have fought three wars, two of which were over Kashmir.
Recent Developments
India has terminated the Indus Water Treaty, which outlines water usage for both India and Pakistan. In retaliation, Pakistan declared the 1972 Shimla Agreement void, a critical foundation for negotiations between the two countries. The scrapping of the treaty is viewed as extremely dangerous.
Governments in New Delhi and Islamabad are grappling with public pressure to respond forcefully to hostilities from the other side. The already heightened tensions have surpassed those of the 2019 crisis, according to South Asia expert Michael Kugelman.
The Danger of Nuclear War
While India promises to refrain from using nuclear weapons first, they plan for a devastating nuclear counterattack in response to enemy aggression, an approach known as massive retaliation. On the other hand, Pakistan retains the right to use nuclear weapons first if the nation's existence is immediately threatened. The Full-Spectrum Deterrence doctrine serves as a deterrent to prevent attacks, but it also raises tensions and places the world on edge. Experts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) estimate that India currently possesses 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan controls 170.
A Brief Historical Overview
In 1846, the British sold Kashmir to the Hindu ruler Gulab Singh, despite the area's predominantly Muslim population. In 1947, as the British departed the Indian subcontinent, local rulers were tasked with choosing between joining predominantly Hindu India or predominantly Muslim Pakistan. The Hindu Maharaja opted for India, sparking several uprisings by local Muslim communities. Intermittent conflicts and rebellions continued until the United Nations-mediated ceasefire in 1949. However, the UN Security Council declared in April 1948 that the final decision regarding Kashmir's statehood would be left to a plebiscite, which has yet to take place.
The Power Struggle Today
The 222,236 square kilometer region, with a total population of approximately 20 million, is fragmented between India, Pakistan, and China. Pakistan controls about a third of the region as Azad Kashmir (Free Kashmir), while China claims a portion of it. Rebel groups in the Indian part of Kashmir fight for independence from India or for unification with Pakistan, with India accusing Pakistan of supporting these groups.
Flashpoint of 2019
In 2019, terrorist attacks and military posturing led to a significant increase in tensions between the two countries. Deadly attacks on Indian security forces resulted in reprisals from India, including attacks on terrorist camps within Pakistan. Tensions subsided temporarily, but heightened again when India revoked Kashmir's special status and divided the region into two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, under tighter central control. Pakistan denounced the move as illegal, leading to increased skirmishes along the Line of Control and widespread militarization in the Kashmir Valley.
The Role of Foreign Powers
The United States and China, influential powers in the region, hold sway over India and Pakistan but have yet to mediate effectively to prevent armed conflict. India is considered a strategic partner by the United States, while Pakistan maintains a key non-NATO ally status. The withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan has reduced global interest in Pakistan's ongoing disputes with India.
- The Commission, involved in policy-and-legislation and general-news, has also been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the escalating tensions and potential for a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
- A contentious topic in the Kashmir politics, the militarization of the region by both India and Pakistan, and the role of extremist groups, presents a severe threat, not just to the region, but to the entire world, in the context of war-and-conflicts.
- Amidst the power struggle in Kashmir, it's important to consider the controls over ionizing radiation for workers, as the regional instability could lead to possible accidents in nuclear power plants or medical facilities, causing immense harm.
- The policy-and-legislation concerning the protection of workers from exposure to ionizing radiation should be prioritized, especially considering the ongoing militarization and the potential for war in Kashmir.
- The politics surrounding the Kashmir conflict, with the looming threat of nuclear war, serves as a stark reminder of the need for stringent controls and directives on the protection of workers from exposure to ionizing radiation.
