Could Clayton Kershaw be the final MLB pitcher to reach 3,000 strikeouts? An analysis of other active players' potential for this feat
In the world of Major League Baseball, reaching the 3,000 strikeout milestone is a feat reserved for the elite. As the 2025 season unfolds, several pitchers are making a strong case for joining this exclusive club.
Clayton Kershaw, the three-time Cy Young Award winner, recently announced his intent to retire at the end of the current season, leaving a vacant spot in the 3,000 strikeout fraternity. However, there are still a few contenders vying for a place among the greats.
Gerrit Cole, currently signed with the Yankees through 2028, is one such contender. His recovery from Tommy John surgery and his performance in the 2026 season will play a significant role in determining his chances of reaching the coveted 3,000 mark. The favorite toy, a system used by Bill James to project a player's career total in counting measures, projects Cole to end his career with 2,716 strikeouts, giving him a 12% chance of reaching 3,000.
Chris Sale, another formidable contender, is projected by the same system to finish his career with 2,938 strikeouts, with a 36% chance of reaching the 3,000 mark. Sale, along with Cole, remains the best current chances to join Kershaw in the 3,000 strikeout fraternity.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola, who signed with the Phillies through 2030, is projected to pitch only two-and-a-half more seasons. To reach 3,000 strikeouts by the end of his current contract, Nola needs to average 215 strikeouts per season.
Young gun Paul Skenes, the Pirates' ace, is making a name for himself as the last, best hope for a new pitcher to join the 3,000 strikeout fraternity. At just 23 years old in the 2025 MLB season, Skenes is projected to end his 2026 season with 600 or more career strikeouts, joining Dwight Gooden as the only starting pitchers since 1900 to strike out 600 or more batters by age 24 across his first three seasons.
Four left-handed pitchers have reached 3,000 strikeouts in MLB history, with Kershaw being one of them. Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease, both left-handed pitchers, are also in the running, with Skubal at 881 career strikeouts, given a 5% chance by the system, and Cease at 1,217, not even halfway to 3,000, also given a 5% chance.
However, the journey to 3,000 strikeouts is not without its challenges. Starting pitchers in MLB are averaging fewer innings per start and making fewer starts overall, making it challenging for new pitchers to reach the milestone. The use of openers and the six-man rotation is also contributing to the decline of starting pitcher usage and related matters of pitcher health in the era of maxed-out velocity and spin.
Only four active pitchers have topped 2,000 strikeouts without reaching 3,000. Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Kevin Gausman, and Sonny Gray are among these active pitchers with over 1,800 strikeouts, but their chances of reaching 3,000 are uncertain.
As the 2025 season progresses, these contenders will continue to battle it out, each pitch seeking to bring them one step closer to the coveted 3,000 strikeout milestone. The race is on, and baseball fans worldwide will be watching with bated breath.
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