Could China's Demographic Limitations Impact Its International Diplomacy?
In 2024, China's total fertility rate stood at approximately 1.1, half the 2.1 replacement level required for population stability. This demographic shift, characterised by population decline and rapid aging, is set to have a profound impact on China's international behaviour.
One of the most significant areas affected is military recruitment and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) doctrine. The declining birth rate reduces the pool of young people available for military conscription, which in turn constrains the size and composition of future military forces. In response, the PLA is expected to shift its focus from quantity to quality, prioritising modernisation, professionalisation, and advanced technology. This aligns with China's goal to achieve military readiness for potential conflicts, such as over Taiwan, by 2027.
The demographic shift also leads to a shrinking workforce and higher social security costs, slowing economic growth and reducing fiscal space for defence budgets. Although China currently has a large labor force, the long-term trend points to labor shortages and higher labor costs, which may compel the government to reallocate resources or seek efficiency in military spending. To mitigate workforce constraints, China is likely to increase investment in military automation and technology, which can reduce reliance on large numbers of personnel and enhance operational effectiveness.
Despite these demographic challenges, China continues an assertive policy in its near abroad—especially Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines—using military maneuvers, maritime coercion, and grey zone tactics. This suggests a dual strategy: leveraging current military capabilities and regional influence while managing future demographic constraints. China's demographic decline may encourage it to solidify regional dominance and secure strategic objectives sooner rather than later, before demographic pressures further intensify.
Concurrently, China expands its global reach via infrastructure projects and economic ties, extending influence through transportation and communication networks. This soft power projection may partially compensate for demographic-driven limitations in hard military power by increasing political and economic leverage internationally.
In summary, China's demographic shift imposes significant constraints on manpower and economic growth, compelling it to adjust military recruitment, budgets, and doctrines by emphasising modernisation and technology. Simultaneously, China pursues an assertive regional policy and expands global influence to secure strategic goals amid demographic pressures. The decline in China's population might be offset by automation and workforce upgrades in the economy, and despite the demographic headwind, China's economy is still expected to perform reasonably well in the near term.
| Aspect | Impact of Demographic Shift | Resulting Constraints/Behaviors | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | Military Recruitment | Decreased youth pool for conscription | Shift to smaller, more professional, tech-driven PLA | | Military Budget | Economic slowdown limits fiscal space | Focus on automation, efficiency, advanced tech | | Near Abroad Policy | Urgency to secure regional claims before decline worsens | Aggressive posturing and military readiness efforts | | PLA Doctrine | Need to compensate for manpower with capabilities | Emphasis on modern warfare, cyber, precision strikes | | International Behavior | Limits on manpower but increases in infrastructure and influence | Expanded global economic and soft power strategies |
- The declining birth rate in China and the resulting demographic shift are anticipated to impact the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by reducing the pool of young people available for military conscription, causing the PLA to focus on quality, prioritizing modernization, professionalization, and advanced technology.
- Economic challenges, such as labor shortages and higher labor costs resulting from the demographic shift, will impact China's defense budgets by slowing economic growth and reducing fiscal space, compelling the government to seek efficiency in military spending and potentially invest in military automation and technology.
