Corn Prices Maintain Upsurge, Prolonging Rise Over Holiday Period
In the world of agricultural commodities, the corn market has been a subject of interest this week, with a complex interplay of export dynamics, supply expectations, and weather influences shaping the current trends.
Prices for Corn futures have shown a mixed picture. While December 2025 corn futures have declined by nearly 30 cents in June, partly disappointing producers, there has been a recent recovery. September 2025 futures have risen by approximately 0.75%, and July futures have gained 3.75 cents, trading around $4.21 to $4.33 per bushel. The July 2025 corn contract is priced about 16 cents higher than the September contract, which is viewed as bearish for new crop corn demand. The USDA projects the season-average farm price for the 2025/26 marketing year at about $4.20/bushel, a modest decline from $4.35 in 2024/25, reflecting higher supplies.
U.S. corn exports are running 26% ahead compared to the previous marketing year for 2024/25, with export forecasts raised to 2.6 billion bushels, the highest since 2020/21. Exports remain supported by slow shipments from competitors Argentina and Brazil, enhancing U.S. price competitiveness. However, old crop sales declined week-over-week by 28%, and exports shipments decreased 11% compared to the prior four-week average.
The weather conditions in the Western Corn Belt are pivotal. While the crop started strong and currently appears good, drier and hotter weather forecast for July could quickly change market sentiment. The USDA's trendline yield forecast is 181 bushels per acre for 2025, implying ending stocks of 1.75 billion bushels, but the historical underperformance relative to trendline yields in recent years injects uncertainty. Market players are watching this weather window closely; if adverse conditions develop late in the month, it could tighten supply expectations and affect prices accordingly.
As of early July 2025, New Crop Cash Corn was $3.95 1/1, up 2 3/4 cents. December 25 Corn closed at $4.37, an increase of 3 1/2 cents. Rains are expected to cover much of the Western Corn Belt in the next week, with 1 to 2 inches expected. The USDA's Export Sales report showed 532,745 MT of old crop corn booked in the week ending on June 26, which was a marketing year low. New crop sales totaled 940,159 MT, exceeding the expected range of 500,000 to 900,000 MT. The largest buyer in the USDA's Export Sales report was South Korea at 273,700 MT, with Mexico as the second-largest buyer at 157,100 MT.
In conclusion, while U.S. corn exports are robust and currently supporting prices, the market is cautious due to projections of abundant supplies and the looming weather outlook in the Western Corn Belt, which remains a critical factor for the new crop's prospects and price direction in the near term.
Weather forecasts and weather conditions in the Western Corn Belt may significantly impact the price direction of the new crop corn in the near term, given the crop's current good appearance but potential vulnerability to drier and hotter weather predicted for July.
The tightening of supply expectations and subsequent price adjustments could occur if adverse conditions develop in the weather window toward the end of July, which market players are closely monitoring.
