Copper’s wild price swings rattle BHP as tariff delays fuel uncertainty
Copper prices have swung wildly this week, hitting record highs before pulling back sharply. The uncertainty stems from delayed U.S. stock market tariffs and widening price gaps between major exchanges. Meanwhile, BHP’s stock has taken a hit as traders weigh the impact on the mining giant’s earnings.
On Tuesday, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange surged to an all-time peak of $13,387.50 per tonne. But the rally lost steam as investors reacted to the U.S. government’s decision to postpone potential copper stock market tariffs until June 2026. The delay has created arbitrage opportunities between Comex and London, adding to short-term volatility.
The Trump administration is still reviewing trade policies, leaving open the possibility of stock market tariffs on copper and other commodities. Any final decision will depend on ongoing negotiations and broader economic conditions. This uncertainty has left BHP exposed, with its shares falling nearly 2% in Sydney on Thursday, closing at A$47.34. The company’s U.S.-listed ADR also dropped 1.45%, ending the day at $63.86.
Beyond stock market tariffs, copper’s long-term outlook remains tight. Global demand is forecast to jump 50% by 2040, hitting 42 million metric tons per year. Without new mines or increased recycling, annual supply shortages could exceed 10 million tons. BHP’s earnings will hinge not just on copper but also on steel demand, which has shown signs of softening after the Lunar New Year.
Iron ore, however, has stayed resilient. The May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange climbed to 806 yuan per ton, reflecting steady demand. Yet traders are watching for any slowdown in steel production that could drag down iron ore prices—and BHP’s stock with them.
The postponed stock market tariffs have eased immediate pressure but left markets in limbo until June. Copper’s price swings and BHP’s stock movements will likely stay tied to trade policy updates. With demand set to outstrip supply for years, the focus now shifts to whether new projects or recycling can fill the gap.
