2023: The Sizzling Record Breaker
According to the European Union's climate change service, Copernicus, 2023 is set to smash temperature records, clinching the title of the globe's hottest year since recording began in the 19th century. With December just around the corner, it seems highly unlikely that temperatures will plummet significantly enough to challenge this prediction, first claimed by 2016.
Originally, chances of 2023 surpassing 2016's record were considered nearly certain, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announcing a 99% likelihood of a new temperature record in mid-November. However, major institutions were reluctant to fully endorse this notion.
Samantha Burgess, Copernicus Climate Change Service's (C3S) Deputy Director, added further context. She revealed that 2023 had already shattered temperature records in multiple months, including November. The extraordinarily high global November temperatures, which soared above two degrees above pre-industrial levels on more than one occasion, solidified 2023's position as the most scorching year thus far.
When questioned about December's temperatures by Copernicus, they admitted that such a dramatic drop would only occur if global average temperatures plummeted extraordinarily low. Given the ongoing influence of El Niño, such drastic temperature swings are considered improbable. As a result, Copernicus remains confident in affirming 2023's status as the hottest year on record.
By the end of November, global average temperatures had already climbed to 1.46 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900. While 2023 currently only trails 2016 by a mere 0.13 degrees, the relentless increase in greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that temperatures will continue to soar, leading to persistent droughts and heatwaves.
The Global Carbon Budget report, published by the United Arab Emirates, underscored this sobering reality. It projected that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels would reach an all-time high of 36.8 billion tons per year in 2023, representing a 1.1% increase compared to 2022 and a 1.4% rise compared to 2019.
Some climate scientists believe that climate change is accelerating at an alarming rate. Data from the past 15 years reveals a more rapid rate of warming compared to the previous 40 years. This acceleration can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions and other human activities that manipulate the Earth's climate system.
Various factors contribute to 2023's record-breaking heat. Greenhouse gas buildup, the El Niño phenomenon, La Niña's unexpected impact, natural and anthropogenic factors, a stronger-than-expected solar cycle, reduced sulfur pollution, and accelerating global warming all play a role. Collectively, these factors indicate that 2023 is on track to become the hottest year on record since 1850, primarily driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic and natural influences.
