Climate Crisis: Copernicus Predicts 2023 as the Hottest on Record Since 1850
EU's climate change service, Copernicus, forecasts that 2023 will stand out as the globe's warmest year since records began in the 19th century. With December around the corner, it seems highly improbable for the temperatures to plummet enough to shake off this title, originally claimed by 2016.
Initially, the chance of 2023 dethroning 2016 was assumed to be close to certain. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared this mid-November, citing a 99% likelihood of a new temperature record being set since 1850. However, at the time, no major institutions had fully committed to the notion.
Samantha Burgess, Copernicus Climate Change Service's (C3S) Deputy Director, shed further light on the situation. She highlighted that 2023 had already broken temperature records for several consecutive months, including November. The remarkable global November temperatures, which even reached two degrees above pre-industrial levels on two occasions, cemented 2023's place as the warmest year on record so far.
When Copernicus was interrogated about the likelihood of December's temperatures surpassing the record set by 2023, they confirmed that it would require an extraordinarily low global average temperature for this to happen. However, based on the ongoing effects of El Niño, such drastic temperature drops are unlikely. Consequently, Copernicus is confident in affirming that 2023 will remain the hottest year on record.
Global average temperatures, as per Copernicus, had already risen to 1.46 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900 by the end of November. 2023 is currently only 0.13 degrees warmer than the first eleven months of 2016, the previous record holder.
Carlo Buontempo, C3S Director, pointed out that the relentless increase in greenhouse gas concentrations would continue to fuel temperatures, and droughts and heatwaves would remain a persistent issue. The Global Carbon Budget report published by the United Arab Emirates underlined this grim reality. It showed that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were expected to reach an all-time high of 36.8 billion tons per year in 2023, marking an increase of 1.1% compared to 2022 and 1.4% compared to 2019.
Some researchers believe that climate change is accelerating. Dating back to the last fifteen years, data indicates a higher rate of warming compared to the previous forty years. Fossil fuel emissions and other human activities that manipulate the Earth's climate system are the primary drivers of this acceleration.
