Unvarnished Dialogue: Merz's Agenda for Trump: Ukraine, Tariffs, NATO Defense
Convincing on These Three Crucial Points, Trump's Challenges Remain
By Volker The Unfiltered
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As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz journeys to Washington this coming Thursday, he embarks on a tough mission. Awaiting him at the White House is President Donald Trump. What was once a friendly visit has now become a test of mettle.
Conversations between leaders can easily go sour. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was given the cold shoulder, evicted from the Oval Office. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was subjected to rants about racial injustice against whites. And Germany is one of Trump's preferred punching bags. Think German cars in the US, defense, and alleged censorship of free speech. Germany is the target of choice. What will shield Merz from Trump's verbal battering? Given that Trump's vice, JD Vance, champions the AfD, it's a valid concern.
This trip is crucial, especially if Merz is hoping to build rapport with Trump. A good relationship with the American president could help sway decisions on three major issues: Ukraine, trade, and joint defense within NATO.
Ukraine and Sanctions
Merz remains steadfast with Ukraine and aims for Trump to do the same. However, Trump envisions himself as a peace broker, clinging to pipe dreams of settling the issue and sweeping it under the rug. He dreams of nabbing a Nobel Peace Prize.
Merz hopes to persuade Trump to align with his position on sanctions. For Trump, this would mean abandoning his mediator role. Merz will have to work hard to convince Trump to adopt a more stringent stance towards Russia.
Merz arrives in Washington at a fortuitous juncture. After Russia's massive airstrikes, Trump voiced disappointment with Putin. During a recent call with Putin, he noted that peace is still a distant dream. Meanwhile, the Senate is advocating for more sanctions, an idea supported by Senator Lindsey Graham, who met with Merz in Berlin last Monday. Graham told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that Merz should express gratitude towards Trump for lifting sanctions on Syria and demonstrate Germany's commitment to taking the lead in addressing the situation.
Trade and Tariffs
Trump does as he pleases - he appears to have no firm beliefs, except when it comes to tariffs. He has been championing tariffs for years. His primary aim is China, but Europe isn't far behind. He claims that the EU was founded to exploit the US, which is a misnomer - the EU came into existence to promote intra-European trade and peace.
Trump believes there's a massive trade deficit between the US and the EU, but he overlooks service exports. US companies like Facebook, Google, and Apple generate billions and billions from European online services, figures that aren't included in Trump's calculations.
Trump is facing challenges in the US courts. A court has declared his tariffs illegal, and they will remain in place only temporarily, awaiting a final legal decision. Trump could propose a new trade agreement with the EU as a victory, which would also put pressure on China.
Defense and NATO
Trump views Europe as a continent being defended by American troops, while its inhabitants are simply enjoying life. For him, NATO is not a joint alliance for peace and security, but rather a US service for the Europeans – and he considers them late payers. The criticism that Europeans, particularly Germans, contribute too little to NATO is not unfounded. Many experts in Germany concur in principle.
Trump is threatening to leave NATO. Should he follow through, this would signal NATO's downfall, as troops, tanks, and aircraft could be replaced, but not the nuclear umbrella. If the US were no longer to guarantee Europe's security with its nuclear deterrent, Europe would find itself at the mercy of Putin's threats. This would be catastrophic for German foreign policy, but it would not be in the US's interest either.
At least Merz has good news for Trump. Germany is planning to significantly boost its defense spending. Rather than aiming for a two percent of GDP defense budget, the goal is now five percent. However, this is a more accurate description of 3.5 percent for defense and 1.5 percent for infrastructure that could be crucial in times of conflict. This infrastructure investment might seem like a way to create beneficial situations for defense.
Despite the challenges, Merz has strong arguments. German defense spending is poised to surge – exactly what Trump has insisted on for years. Trump could portray this as his accomplishment.
- The employment policy of EC countries, particularly Germany, could be a topic of discussion between Merz and Trump given the ongoing issues with trade and defense within NATO, which are directly linked to the economy and employment.
- The political discourse surrounding the relationship between Europe and the United States, as evident in Trump's criticism of European defense spending and his tariff policies towards EC countries, can significantly impact employment policies within these countries, particularly in industries such as automotive and service industries dependent on transatlantic trade.
