Cont易见，Saarland's government head identifies the Greens Party as their primary competitor
### German Elections: Greens and CDU/CSU in a Tight Race
In the upcoming 2029 Bundestag election, polls predict a close competition between the center-right CDU/CSU and the Greens party. As of July 2025, the latest surveys show the CDU/CSU leading with 27.4–28%, while the Greens trail behind with 11–11.8% [1][3].
The CDU/CSU, currently the dominant force in German politics, is polling well above the Greens, positioning them as the likely anchor of any future governing coalition [3]. However, current numbers suggest they would still need a partner to secure a majority. The Greens, on the other hand, are showing resilience but lack the momentum for a major breakthrough, remaining a mid-sized party [1][3].
The two parties, though not direct competitors for the same electoral base, have intertwined fates at the coalition level. Neither the CDU/CSU nor the Greens can form a government alone, but the Greens are often considered a potential coalition partner for the CDU/CSU. However, with the Greens polling well below the CDU/CSU, their leverage in coalition negotiations would be limited compared to previous cycles [1][3].
The Greens have made bold promises, such as phasing out nuclear power and coal by 2030 if elected [4]. They have also emphasised their focus on climate change, renewable energy, and social justice in their campaign [5]. Annalena Baerbock, the first female chancellor candidate for the Greens, was announced as their candidate for the upcoming Bundestag election [6].
Tobias Hans, the head of government, has expressed concern about the potential for a contentious discussion about a new chairman, as it could worsen the situation close to the Bundestag election [7]. He has also warned against repeating the factionalism seen during the party chairman election at the December conference [8].
The Greens have criticised the current government's handling of the climate crisis and called for more ambitious action [9]. They have also been viewed as the main challenger by Saarland's Minister President Tobias Hans [10]. The Greens' conference, covered by dts Nachrichtenagentur, was held in Saarbrücken, Germany, where party members voiced their hopes for a team solution at least after the election [11].
Despite the good poll numbers for the Union, Tobias Hans considers them to be a snapshot, not a guarantee for the next government [12]. He has also stated that the CDU must choose and fully support a chancellor candidate [13].
In conclusion, the CDU/CSU continues to dominate German electoral politics, while the Greens remain a stable, mid-sized party with little sign of significant growth. The real electoral drama is in the surge of the AfD and the erosion of the traditional center-left (SPD), but in the direct comparison between the Union and the Greens, the Greens are not positioned to overtake the CDU/CSU or to become the main alternative to the center-right in the foreseeable future. Both parties will likely be crucial in coalition arithmetic, but the Union holds the upper hand in both votes and negotiations [1][3].
[1] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [2] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [3] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [4] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [5] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [6] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [7] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [8] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [9] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [10] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [11] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [12] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html) [13] [Bundestagswahl 2029: Die Umfragen](https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article215837154/Bundestagswahl-2029-Die-Umfragen.html)
The Greens, as a mid-sized party, have shown resilience in the German elections, but their current poll numbers indicate they are not expected to overtake the CDU/CSU. This suggests that other policy-and-legislation negotiations, such as climate change and renewable energy, may need to involve both parties due to their potential role in any future coalition. The political landscape in Germany is likely to be influenced by these party dynamics, as both the CDU/CSU and the Greens hold significant power in the general-news discourse.
