Contesting Influence in the Middle East: Trump and Netanyahu Allegedly Highlight Vulnerabilities in Russian-Chinese Partnership, from Iran to Syria
Breaking Down the Middle East Conflict
The ongoing skirmishes between Israel, the United States, and Iran have left a lasting impact, most notably exposing cracks in the so-called "Resistance Axis" - a strategic alliance between Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing. Let's delve into the tumultuous landscape of this alliance and its regional partners.
The Resistance Axis under Pressure
Initially, the Resistance Axis, consisting of Iranian-backed militant and political groups spread across the Middle East, aimed to counter US and Israeli influence. This network included Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and sometimes Hamas.
However, recent conflicts have severely impacted their operational capacity and unity. The years 2023-2025 have shaken the foundations of the Axis, causing a domino effect in their regional coalitions.
- Military and Strategic Blows: Hezbollah, for instance, faces a significant setback due to Israeli attacks that claimed the life of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other key commanders, and the destruction of critical weapons infrastructure. The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria further complicates the logistical backbone, having disrupted Iran’s land corridor for supplying arms to its allies. The Houthis and Iraqi militias, although still active, have significantly scaled back their aggression following ceasefire agreements and political pressures.
- Strategic Retrenchment and Silence: Ironically, the deafening silence from many of Iran’s proxies during the escalating hostilities provides evidence of exhaustion and internal constraints, rather than coordinated forward action. This silence suggests that they aim for survival over confrontation given their weaknessened condition and domestic political scrutiny.
- Domestic and Political Challenges: The factions within the Axis face increasing domestic opposition, with newer political leaders in Lebanon and Iraq challenging the military autonomy of Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces respectively. Additionally, the Houthis grapple with public discontent due to the continuous humanitarian toll of airstrikes, which further jeopardizes their unity.
The Absence of Moscow and Beijing
Amidst the chaos, Moscow (Russia) and Beijing (China), strategic allies of Iran, have largely remained on the sidelines. Historically, Russia has had ties with Syria and Iran, while China has maintained cautious interests in the Middle East. However, these recent conflicts appear to have weakened Iran’s coalition rather than bolstering a broader trilateral alliance involving Moscow and Beijing.
In the current climate, there is no strong evidence indicating that either Russia or China engage in meaningful collaboration within the framework of the Resistance Axis during the ongoing conflict.
In summary, the Middle East conflict of 2023-2025 has significantly weakened the cohesion of the Resistance Axis, as well as its key players. Current evidence suggests that Moscow and Beijing have played alimited role within this alliance during the hostilities. The partners responsible for countering US and Israeli influence are left grappling with internal challenges and survival, rather than presenting a united front.
The tumultuous landscape of the Resistance Axis,under pressure due to recent conflicts, has seen significant weakening of its cohesion and operational capacity. In this context, the role of international partners, such as Moscow and Beijing, has remained limited during the ongoing conflict, rather than bolstering a broader alliance.
The internal struggles of the Resistance Axis, including militant and political groups like Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces, have been compounded by a lack of meaningful collaboration from strategic allies Russia and China in the midst of war-and-conflicts that engulfed the Middle East between 2023 and 2025.
